White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction, MLB ALDS Game 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/10)

Fact checked at 6:36 AM ET, Oct 10, 2026

Odds as of Oct 10, 5:56 AM ET

The road team has won every game of this series, and now one game decides it. The White Sox took the first two in Cleveland, 3-0 and 4-3. The Guardians answered with 9-3 and 9-5 wins in Chicago. Whoever wins Saturday opens the ALCS against the Rays on Monday.

Game 5 is a rematch of Game 2's pitching, except this time both men start. Gavin Williams, the American League leader with 248 strikeouts, struck out 11 White Sox in five innings that day. Sean Burke came on in the third for Chicago and gave up one run on one hit over 5 1/3 innings, with six strikeouts. Both managers confirmed their starters on Friday, and Chicago will not put an opener in front of Burke. Neither club got more than 2 1/3 innings from its starter in Games 3 and 4. Game 5 belongs to the starters.

Cleveland is -136 on the consensus moneyline with Chicago at +115, barely moved from the Guardians' opening price of -139 on Friday. Cleveland -1.5 pays +156 and Chicago +1.5 costs -190. The total is 7, Over -120 and Under -100, after the Over opened at -125. Expect upper-60s temperatures at first pitch, mostly cloudy skies, a southeast wind around 9 mph and little chance of rain. Neither club had posted a batting order when we checked.

First pitch is Saturday at 8:00 PM ET at Progressive Field, on TBS and truTV.

We're betting on the starters, not a winner. Both of these men have made a habit of missing bats against tonight's opponent, and both picks below are strikeout Overs that cash if they get through a normal outing.

White Sox vs. Guardians Predictions

• Pick #1: Sean Burke Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-147)
• Pick #2: Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136)

PICK #1: Sean Burke Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-147)

Cleveland has not solved Burke. Across three regular-season outings and Game 2 he has allowed four runs (three earned) in 22 2/3 innings, a 1.19 ERA, with strikeout totals of 6, 11, 4 and 6. The line asks for four.

Four is a modest number for him against anybody. He reached it in 26 of his 32 regular-season appearances and finished with 185 strikeouts in 172 1/3 innings, 9.66 per nine, along with a 3.34 ERA and a .225 opponents' average. Even in his nine shortest outings, 4 1/3 innings or fewer, he got to four strikeouts six times. The -147 price implies 59.5%, and his record says the real number is higher.

Two things work against it. Cleveland struck out 1,271 times this season, the fifth-fewest in the majors, so this is a contact lineup. And the outs market is braced for a short night: Burke's line sits at 12.5 outs with the Under favored. We think Chicago's bullpen argues the other way. Erick Fedde threw 61 pitches Thursday, Hagen Smith has already pitched three times in the series, and closer Grant Taylor faced six hitters in Game 4 without retiring one. Will Venable has every reason to ride his starter.

PICK #2: Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136)

Chicago strikes out. The White Sox did it 1,494 times in the regular season, fifth-most in baseball, and they have done it 54 times in four games against Cleveland's staff, 19 of them in Game 3. Williams has taken full advantage: he struck out 8, 6, 7 and 7 in his four regular-season starts against them, then 11 in Game 2. That is seven or more in four of five.

His full season says the same. He had 248 strikeouts over 184 1/3 innings in 32 starts, 12.11 per nine, and reached seven in 20 of the 32. His last five regular-season starts went 13, 11, 7, 9 and 4. You're paying -136, which works out to about 57.6%.

Length is the risk here, not stuff. Williams has not finished the sixth inning in any of those five starts against Chicago, a patient lineup that drew 589 walks this season (fourth-most), and Game 2 took him 98 pitches with three walks. He also threw 18 pitches to close out Game 4 on Thursday, which the Guardians treated as his between-starts bullpen session. Stephen Vogt has not set a limit. "The game will tell us when it's time to move on, or maybe he takes it the whole way," the manager said. Cleveland's bullpen is worn as well; closer Cade Smith threw 50 pitches across Games 3 and 4 and spent Friday getting treatment. Chicago is expected to go back to a lineup built around left-handed hitters against him. The prop needs Williams to start, so pass if anything changes.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.