Brewers vs. Rays Prediction, MLB World Series Game 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/28)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Odds as of 8:29 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Milwaukee is one win from the first championship in franchise history, and it gets to chase it with its ace on the mound. The Brewers lead the World Series 3-1 after Tampa Bay stayed alive with a 4-3 win in 12 innings in Game 4, scoring twice in the bottom of the 12th without making an out. Three of the four games have been decided by a single run. The only lopsided one was Milwaukee's 10-1 win in Game 3. First pitch is 8:00 PM ET at Tropicana Field, a dome, on FOX.

Jacob Misiorowski, who led the majors with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts in the regular season, starts for Milwaukee on four days of rest. Tampa Bay hasn't named its starter. All five of its regular-season rotation arms have already pitched in this series, including Griffin Jax, who started Game 4, and Nick Martinez, who threw two innings in relief behind him. A bullpen game is the likeliest plan.

We think tonight looks a lot like Game 1. Misiorowski gives Milwaukee about five good innings, hands a lead to Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill, and Tampa Bay's patched-together staff can't keep the Brewers quiet long enough. In that game Milwaukee wins and Misiorowski is gone before he gets deep into the sixth. Milwaukee is -154 on the moneyline, with Tampa Bay at +126.

Brewers vs. Rays Predictions

• Pick #1: Jacob Misiorowski Under 15.5 Outs (-133)
• Pick #2: Brewers Moneyline (-154)

PICK #1: Jacob Misiorowski Under 15.5 Outs (-133)

Milwaukee hasn't asked Misiorowski for length in the playoffs, and this Tampa Bay lineup makes a pitcher work for every out.

His three postseason starts produced 12, 13 and 15 outs: four innings on 88 pitches in the Division Series, 4 1/3 innings on 94 pitches in the NLCS, and five innings on 78 pitches in Game 1 of this series, when he was pulled with one run allowed. Count his last two regular-season turns, 16 outs and 9 outs, and he's stayed under 15.5 in four of his last five. A 16th out means retiring a batter in the sixth inning, and he hasn't done that once this postseason. The Under at -133 implies a 57.1% chance.

Tampa Bay struck out 1,145 times this season, the fewest in the majors, and its .326 on-base percentage ranked fifth. Hitters who put the ball in play and reach base drive a pitch count up, and a pitcher on a short leash runs out of pitches before he runs out of innings. He struck out only three Rays in Game 1.

The risk is Milwaukee stretching him. He averaged better than 17 outs a start across 30 regular-season starts, and after the Brewers used eight pitchers in Game 4 they may want more from him. If Tampa Bay changes its lineup, as it did in Games 3 and 4 when Ryan Vilade started, its season numbers fit it less well. But the Brewers have taken him out after five innings or fewer in all three playoff starts, and nothing they've said points to a different plan.

PICK #2: Brewers Moneyline (-154)

Milwaukee has its best starter and the late-inning relievers it wants ready to go. Tampa Bay has no rested starter and nine innings to cover with whoever is left.

The Brewers' bullpen did a lot of work in Game 4, but the three arms that matter most threw light loads. Uribe needed 19 pitches for two innings, Megill threw five and Ashby threw 31 over seven outs, and none of them pitched in Game 3. Behind them is a staff that allowed 618 runs this season, the fourth-fewest in the majors. Tampa Bay's staff is stretched. Closer Bryan Baker threw two innings in Game 4, Ian Seymour needed 32 pitches for three outs, and Jax, Martinez, Freddy Peralta and Drew Rasmussen have all started in this series. Cole Sulser, Steven Matz and Garrett Cleavinger didn't pitch in Game 4 and are the freshest arms.

The price has moved Milwaukee's way, 25 cents since the line opened, and it moved as it became clear the Rays had no rested starter for Game 5. At -154, the implied probability is 60.6%. The Brewers have won seven of their last eight postseason games, and All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero hurt his left foot during the Game 4 rally, though he said he will play.

Tampa Bay won 98 games, this series has been one-run tight, and a bullpen game with an off day after it lets every reliever go all out. The case leans on the Rays not producing a surprise starter, and a rested arm would shrink the edge. Most of the betting public is on Milwaukee, with 83% of moneyline bets, so this is the popular side. We'll lay the price anyway, because the gap between the two pitching plans is that wide.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.