Brewers vs. Rays Prediction, MLB World Series Game 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/27)

Fact checked at 7:18 AM ET, Oct 27, 2026

Odds as of 5:36 AM ET, Oct 27, 2026

Milwaukee is one win from its first World Series title. The Brewers won the first two games at home by a run apiece, 3-2 and 5-4, then blew the Rays out 10-1 in Game 3 at Tropicana Field on the strength of an eight-run fifth inning. That's a 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. Tampa Bay has scored one run in its last 17 innings and now plays to stay alive. Game 4 starts at 8:00 PM ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, under the dome, on FOX.

Right-hander Griffin Jax starts for the Rays. Milwaukee hasn't named its starter. Brandon Woodruff had been getting ready for this game, but he got the final three outs of Game 3 instead, so the choice comes down to Dustin May, Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan or an opener from a rested bullpen. Lineups aren't posted yet, and Milwaukee has run out the same nine in all three games of the series.

We expect Milwaukee to finish this the way it won Game 3, with its bats. Jax is expected to be on a short leash. The Rays relievers behind him would be pitching on back-to-back days after a heavy Game 3, while Milwaukee's top relievers are rested. That adds up to a Brewers win, with enough Milwaukee runs to push the game past 7.5.

Brewers vs. Rays Predictions

• Pick #1: Brewers Moneyline (-138)
• Pick #2: Over 7.5 (-104)

PICK #1: Brewers Moneyline (-138)

Milwaukee has the better lineup and the fresher bullpen, and the market has been moving its way. The Brewers opened at -118 and are -138 now. The move came after the Rays named Jax, while Milwaukee's starter was still undecided. At -138, the moneyline implies a 58.0% chance.

They scored 832 runs in the regular season, second-most in baseball, and have won 8 of their last 9 games. They also allowed 618 runs, fourth-fewest in baseball, and the relievers behind that number are fresh. Aaron Ashby and Abner Uribe pitched in both games in Milwaukee, Trevor Megill pitched in Game 1, and none of the three pitched in Game 3. Whoever starts, Milwaukee's best late-inning relievers should be ready.

Tampa Bay's plan is thinner. Jax figures to have a short leash, and five Rays relievers who pitched in Game 3 would be going on back-to-back days. One of them is Cam Booser, who was charged with four earned runs without getting an out.

Milwaukee still hasn't named a starter, and that's the soft spot here. If May, Harrison, Drohan or an opener gets knocked around early, Milwaukee's bullpen edge shrinks. The Rays won 98 games in the regular season, and two of Milwaukee's three wins in this series came by one run.

PICK #2: Over 7.5 (-104)

Milwaukee's lineup hasn't cooled off in the playoffs. Five of the Brewers' last nine games have gone over 7.5, two of the three in this series among them, and they put up 10 runs in Game 3 without hitting a home run. Jackson Chourio is 8-for-14 in the World Series. William Contreras is hitting .419 with a .490 on-base percentage this postseason.

Jax should open the door to the Rays' bullpen early. He has a 3.53 ERA in 112.1 innings this season (34 appearances, 23 starts), but his last five starts ran between 52 and 74 pitches. In his only start of this postseason, he allowed three earned runs in four innings at Cleveland. With the season on the line, expect a quick hook at the first sign of trouble. That hands innings to a bullpen that hasn't held up in this series. Booser, Cole Sulser, Garrett Cleavinger, Steven Matz and Tyler Wells all pitched in Game 3, and Matz has pitched in all three games. Nothing says any of them is unavailable, but that's a lot of recent work for the arms Tampa Bay would lean on.

The Over at -104 implies 51.0%. Most books have the total at 7.5, a few at 7.

Jax is what could sink this. He allowed one run over his final four starts of the regular season, and if he gets through Milwaukee's order twice cleanly, the Brewers may not see enough of that bullpen. The bet settles on the full game, extra innings included.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.