Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Prediction, CFB Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/1)

Fact checked at 4:45 PM ET, Oct 1, 2026

Odds as of Oct 1, 3:54 PM ET

Two 1-3 teams, one win apiece, and both of those wins came against the same FCS opponent, Mercyhurst. Western Kentucky visits New Mexico State on Thursday night to open Conference USA play for both. Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, on CBS Sports Network. The game was still on as scheduled when we checked Thursday afternoon.

New Mexico State is a 2.5-point favorite at -110 either way. The moneyline is Aggies -135, Hilltoppers +110. The total opened at 53.5 on Sept. 27 and had climbed to 55.5 by our 3:54 PM ET check, with the Over at -114 and the Under at -110. TK King to score a touchdown was -110 at 4:10 PM ET.

Neither coach has named a starting quarterback. Rodney Tisdale Jr. got hurt in the second quarter at Georgia, sat out the Indiana game, then came back to start Western Kentucky's 52-7 win over Mercyhurst, with Brock Glenn mixed in. New Mexico State has a live competition between Trey Hedden and Adam Damante after Damante replaced Hedden in the third quarter against New Mexico and threw two fourth-quarter touchdown passes. As of Thursday afternoon, Tony Sanchez said the decision didn't lean either way, and Tyson Helton plans to use both of his guys. So none of the three picks below depends on a quarterback change fixing anything. They lean on the players who have already produced.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. New Mexico State Aggies Predictions

• Pick #1: Over 55.5 (-114)
• Pick #2: New Mexico State Aggies Moneyline (-135)
• Pick #3: TK King Anytime Touchdown (-110)

PICK #1: Over 55.5 (-114)

Western Kentucky has given up 49, 70 and 38 points in its three games against FBS teams. The 70 came at Georgia, ranked No. 2 at the time, and the 38 at Indiana, ranked No. 4, so throw those out as a forecast for what New Mexico State can do. The 49 at Nevada is the one that matters. Nevada is a lot closer to the Aggies' level, and it put up 49. New Mexico State's own defense gave up 29 at Hawaii and 42 to New Mexico. The Over doesn't need either defense to have its worst night. It needs both to be roughly what they've been.

The Aggies can move the ball on the ground. James Jones has 355 yards on 57 carries through four games, and his 14-carry, 112-yard game against New Mexico came on a day the rest of the offense sputtered. TK King has 18 catches for 265 yards, though the quarterback situation makes his workload a guess. Those two are the case. Damante's two late touchdown throws in a 42-18 loss to New Mexico are not; one relief appearance is thin evidence of anything.

The same restraint applies to Western Kentucky's passing game. Tisdale went 19-of-23 for 309 yards and four touchdowns against Mercyhurst, but that was an FCS defense, and Glenn took some of those snaps. Jonathan Stafford Jr.'s 20 catches in four games are the more durable number. Both teams played at home Saturday, and Western Kentucky is the one making the trip on a short week.

The weather won't get in the way early. The National Weather Service hourly has 70 degrees at kickoff with a north-northeast wind near 8 mph and a 2% chance of rain. The wind builds to about 10 mph with gusts into the low 20s in the second half, which could bother long kicks more than passes. What could sink this bet is two quarterbacks sharing snaps, turnovers, or Western Kentucky's line missing starting right tackle Karsten Upchurch and stalling drives. At -114, the Over implies a 53.3% chance, and the two-point climb since the open means you're paying more for the same idea than you would have Sunday. This is a full-game total that includes overtime; check that the ticket you're buying settles the same way. If late personnel news knocks out a piece of either offense, Under 55.5 (-110) is the other side. One more thing: this Over and the two Aggies picks below are cashing off some of the same drives. Don't treat them as three separate bets.

PICK #2: New Mexico State Aggies Moneyline (-135)

This is a lean, not a conviction. New Mexico State gets the nod because it has a running game that has produced even when the passing game hasn't, and in a game where neither starter has been named, that's worth something.

Jones is the whole argument. His 112 yards against New Mexico came in a loss, with Hedden at 7-of-19 before he was pulled, so the production doesn't depend on the Aggies playing well everywhere else. That's more useful than betting on Damante's relief appearance to have settled the position. Nothing is settled. Hedden or Damante could start, and the split could change how the Aggies build drives.

Western Kentucky's defensive numbers need the same filter as in the Over. Georgia and Indiana are in a different weight class from New Mexico State, and 70 and 38 shouldn't be pasted into this game. The 49 at Nevada can be. The Aggies also get to stay home after hosting New Mexico, while the Hilltoppers travel after a home game on the same short week. Treat it as a scheduling note, not a claim that the visitors will be gassed.

At -135 as of 3:54 PM ET, you need the Aggies to win 57.4% of the time to break even, and the early-season numbers don't separate these teams by that much. The bet is a full-game win, overtime included; confirm the book settles it that way. New Mexico State -2.5 (-110) is the spread version. The case for Western Kentucky is real: Tisdale is back, Stafford has a defined role, and the Aggies just allowed 42 to New Mexico. Western Kentucky's line is without Upchurch, and the quarterback split is a risk on both sidelines. An Aggies win with points in it would also carry the Over.

PICK #3: TK King Anytime Touchdown (-110)

King has scored twice this season, and both touchdowns came against FBS teams. He gets the call over teammates whose scores came against Mercyhurst or in the late catch-up stretch against New Mexico. The price was -110 at 4:10 PM ET, which works out to 52.4% implied. This is an anytime-scorer bet, so King has to find the end zone himself; a touchdown pass to someone else does nothing for you. Read the participation, overtime and void rules on the prop first.

He leads the Aggies with 18 catches and 265 yards and is tied for the team lead with two receiving touchdowns. Game by game: seven catches for 78 yards and a score at Florida State, three for 94 with no score in the 51-14 win over Mercyhurst, four for 67 and a score at Hawaii, and four for 26 with no score against New Mexico. Two touchdowns in four games, two blanks, and the quietest line came last week. Four games is the whole record, and it's not enough to turn into a probability.

We're assuming King plays his usual role; that's based on his usage, not on a Thursday lineup. The unsettled quarterback situation could change where and how often he's targeted. Jones and the other receivers can finish drives instead of him, so a good night for the Aggies' offense doesn't guarantee a King touchdown. His catch volume supports the role, but we don't have target or red-zone data to go further than that. The moneyline and the Over can both win without him scoring, and a King touchdown helps both, so the three picks lean on each other.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.