Fact checked at 8:03 AM ET, Nov 10, 2026Odds as of 7:18 AM ET, Nov 10, 2026
Ohio (7-2, 5-0 MAC) visits Miami (OH) (5-4, 3-2 MAC) at 8:00 PM ET at Yager Stadium in Oxford, and a win would make the RedHawks bowl eligible on senior night. Miami opened as a 1.5-point favorite, then the line flipped to Ohio -1.5 over the weekend with most of the moneyline money on the Bobcats. No injury or quarterback news explains it. Caleb Heavner, Miami's third quarterback after season-ending injuries to the top two, has already started five games. We see a slow rivalry game that turns on Miami's run defense against Ohio's run game, which keeps the score down and keeps the home team, now getting points, in it to the end.
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) Predictions
Pick #1Under 46.5−105
Ohio wants to run the ball, and Miami is very good at stopping it. The Bobcats average about 188 rushing yards a game. Miami allows fewer than 100, and its last five opponents managed 373 rushing yards combined. Ohio already got a taste of this at Akron last week: take away Duncan Brune's late 91-yard touchdown run and the Bobcats finished with 70 rushing yards. Their 28 points that night also included a 45-yard interception return.
The Ohio defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in five straight games, and Heavner has four touchdown passes in his five starts. Three of Ohio's last five games stayed under this number, finishing at 23, 44 and 45 total points.
Miami's recent totals cut against it. Its last five games averaged about 50 points, though the 65 against Buffalo needed overtime and a blocked-punt return touchdown in regulation. Ohio's best way to push this over is Poulos, who still hasn't thrown an interception, throwing against a pass defense that gives up about 280 yards a game, last in the conference. But Ohio passes for only about 181 a game, and a run-first team grinding against a top run defense tends to burn clock. The -105 price implies a 51.2% chance. This assumes Heavner starts for Miami as projected.
Pick #2Miami (OH) +1.5−112
By the ratings this is a coin flip, and the line asks Miami only to win, or lose by one. One widely used power rating gives Miami a 50.5% chance to win outright, and another public simulation model has the RedHawks at 51.6%. The 1.5 points also cover a one-point Ohio win. At -112, the implied probability is 52.8%.
Ohio's last two wins were closer than they should have been. The Bobcats beat 1-8 Akron 28-20 as 12.5-point favorites while getting outgained 392 to 358, and before that they beat Eastern Michigan 24-20 as 11.5-point favorites. Miami beat that same Akron team 34-14 in Oxford. Ohio also played at Akron without starting kicker Will Hryszko, and his status for tonight is unclear. That matters in a game that could easily come down to a field goal.
The money disagrees with us. Ohio holds 83% of the moneyline money on 55% of the bets, and the Bobcats have won the last two meetings, including a 38-3 rout in the MAC title game two seasons ago. Miami is also relying on a backup quarterback, and if Heavner can't go, this case gets much weaker. We'll still take the home team with a cushion in a low-scoring game, the same game the Under needs.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
