Fact checked at 5:43 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 4:54 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
Massachusetts (5-4, 2-3 MAC) visits Toledo (7-2, 4-1 MAC) at 7:30 PM ET at the Glass Bowl, where the Rockets are 14-point favorites and the total is 51.5. Those numbers fit the Toledo offense that scored 45 on Western Michigan. We think tonight looks more like last week, when the Rockets ran 49 times, threw for 60 yards and beat Sacramento State 20-17. Massachusetts has scored 19 or fewer in four of its last five games, and there are showers in the evening forecast. The likeliest result is a Toledo win with the total in the 40s, and in that kind of game two touchdowns is too many to lay.
Massachusetts vs. Toledo Predictions
Pick #1Under 51.5−105
For this game to reach 52, Massachusetts has to score, and lately it hasn't done much of that. The Minutemen scored 14, 19, 18 and 16 during a four-game losing streak before they beat Ball State 31-30 in overtime. Tonight they face a Toledo defense that has 28 sacks in nine games and held Sacramento State to eight rushing yards last week.
Toledo can throw. John Alan Richter has 2,304 passing yards and 18 touchdowns. But the Rockets also run about 39 times a game for 192 yards, and when the Sacramento State game got tight they handed off 49 times for 230 yards. CJ Miller and Autavius Ison both went over 100. Showers in the forecast favor more of that. The Massachusetts defense helps too: it is second in the MAC in yards allowed at 327 a game, FCS opponents included. Something like 27-17 or 30-17 fits this matchup.
The season results at this number are no help either way, since 4 of Massachusetts' 7 FBS games and 4 of Toledo's 8 stayed under 51.5. Toledo's ceiling is the trouble. The Rockets scored 49, 41, 39 and 45 in four of their FBS wins, and they have scored on 94.6% of their red-zone trips. Running back Connor Walendzak, who missed the last two games, could also return; his status hasn't been announced. At -105 the implied probability is 51.2%. On the total, 41% of the money is on the Under against 30% of the bets.
Pick #2Massachusetts +14−112
Three times this season Toledo has been favored by more than two touchdowns against an FBS team, and it hasn't covered once. It beat Ball State by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite, lost 23-8 to Buffalo as an 18.5-point favorite and won by three at Sacramento State as a 25.5-point favorite. Only three of Toledo's eight FBS games ended in a Rockets win by more than 14. The -112 price is a 52.8% break-even.
A low-scoring game makes the number harder still. Four of Toledo's FBS games stayed under 51.5, and the Rockets won just one of them by more than two touchdowns, 34-14 at Eastern Michigan. Massachusetts has been hard to put away, too. Five of its seven FBS games were either wins or losses by a touchdown or less, and one of the wins was 35-6 at Sacramento State, the same team Toledo beat by three last week.
The other two games are the argument for Toledo. Eastern Michigan beat Massachusetts 38-14 and Connecticut beat it 35-16, both with William Watson III at quarterback, and Toledo beat that Eastern Michigan team by 20. Computer ratings average out to Toledo by about 16. Watson has started the last two games after missing two with a lower-body injury, and he is expected to start again. On the spread, 46% of the money is on Massachusetts against 36% of the bets. If Toledo's offense gets into the 40s, both bets lose. We're backing the Toledo of last week, and that team doesn't win by 15.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
