Fact checked at 5:46 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 4:54 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
Sacramento State (2-8, 1-6 MAC) visits Central Michigan (4-5, 2-3 MAC) at 7:30 PM ET at Kelly/Shorts Stadium, and the market doesn't expect a close game. Central Michigan is a 17.5-point favorite. Its last game was a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan in which it ran 53 times and held the ball for 40:56. The total is 43.5, and 78% of the bets on it are on the Over. We're staying off the margin and the total. Sacramento State has lost six games to FBS opponents by 17 or more points, and two Hornets kept producing through those losses: receiver Onterrio Smith Jr. and freshman running back Isaiah Ene. Both picks are built for a night when Central Michigan wins comfortably.
Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan Predictions
Pick #1Onterrio Smith Jr. 20+ Receiving Yards−199
Smith has had at least 20 receiving yards in all nine of Sacramento State's games against FBS opponents: 86, 66, 37, 31, 37, 37, 36, 40 and 23. That list includes a 49-3 loss at Fresno State, a 48-7 loss to Ohio and a win over Kent State in which the Hornets threw for only 117 yards. He is one of three players who have started every game on offense, and he has caught between two and four passes in each of the last eight games.
Who throws to him is less clear. Jackson Sharman is listed as the starter, but he left last week's 20-17 loss to Toledo at halftime with an upper-body injury, and Brian Salazar Jr. played the second half. It didn't cost Smith anything. Both of his catches against Toledo, for 5 and 18 yards, came from Salazar in the fourth quarter. He also had 86 yards in the opener, when Carson Conklin started, so he has reached 20 with three different quarterbacks.
You pay for all of that. At -199 the implied probability is 66.6%, and Central Michigan allows 177.5 passing yards a game to FBS opponents. But Smith doesn't need a big passing night. He needs his usual two or three catches, and his lowest total against an FBS team is 23 yards. Time of possession could cost him: if Central Michigan holds the ball for 40 minutes again, Sacramento State will have fewer throws to share.
Pick #2Isaiah Ene 30+ Rushing Yards−122
Ene has led Sacramento State's running backs in carries in each of the last five games, with 12, 7, 10, 19 and 12. His yardage in those games: 46, 59, 57, 107 and 1. Four of the five clear 30, and the first three came in losses by 28, 41 and 17 points. He needed only seven carries to gain 59 in the 48-7 loss to Ohio. The -122 price implies 55.0%. Over the full season he has 30 or more in 6 of 9 games against FBS opponents, and two of the three misses came early, when he had three and five carries.
The 1 needs explaining. Toledo held Sacramento State to eight rushing yards on 31 attempts last week, and Ene gained 1 yard on 12 carries. Central Michigan can be run on. The Chippewas allow 176 rushing yards a game to FBS opponents, and the leading rusher for every FBS team they have played has gained at least 42. Eastern Michigan's Amareon Blue ran for 42 on eight carries in the 35-7 game, when the Eagles had the ball for only 19 minutes. Central Michigan's game notes also say it will finish the season without several starters, among them three defensive linemen and linebacker Xavier White.
Neither pick needs Sacramento State to keep this close. Central Michigan can win by three touchdowns and both can still come in.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
