Fact checked at 9:18 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Washington (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten) visits Michigan State (3-6, 1-5) at 5:30 PM ET at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, a kickoff pushed back after a nationwide ground stop delayed Washington's travel. The Huskies are 2.5-point favorites with the total at 44.5, and 74% of the spread money and 59% of the bets are on Washington. We're staying off the side and looking at how each team moves the ball. Washington has running backs Jordan Washington, Quaid Carr and Trey Cooley ruled out, and Michigan State is without its top three backs again. Both offenses figure to rely on the pass, so both picks come from the passing games: Chris Lawson for Washington and Alessio Milivojevic for Michigan State.
Washington vs. Michigan State Predictions
Pick #1Chris Lawson 50+ Receiving Yards−190
Washington has had two different quarterbacks throw most of its passes over the last five games, and Lawson hasn't cared. Demond Williams Jr. threw nearly every pass at USC and against Penn State, and Lawson had 82 and 89. Elijah Brown threw most of them against Iowa, at Purdue and at Nebraska, and Lawson had 86, 103 and 155 on 12 catches. Five straight games at 50 or more.
At -190, the price implies 65.5%, so judge it on the whole season, which is a little less tidy. Lawson has 50 or more in seven of Washington's eight games against FBS teams. He fell short with 29 yards against Utah State early in the season, and he had 19 against Eastern Washington, an FCS team; Williams was the quarterback in both. For the year he has 49 catches for 727 yards, 80.8 a game.
Michigan State's secondary is short. Its leading tackler, safety Devin Vaught, is out, and so is safety Brayden Thomas, while cornerbacks Tre Bell and Charles Brantley are questionable on the latest conference report. With three running backs out, Washington doesn't have much choice but to throw.
Williams is the risk. He has played through a fractured rib for the past month, and his coach says he'll start even though he didn't throw at one practice this week and split reps at another with Brown. What Lawson did with Brown is why we're still on this if Williams can't finish. The other problem would be protection: Michigan State had five sacks at Michigan, and a day spent running from the rush is how this one loses.
Pick #2Alessio Milivojevic 170+ Passing Yards−182
Washington allows 214.4 passing yards a game, and Michigan State's running backs are another reason to expect throws. Cam Edwards and Marvis Parrish are out again, and leading rusher Jaziun Patterson is doubtful.
Milivojevic has thrown for 170 or more in six of his eight starts: 247 against Toledo, 170 against Eastern Michigan, 208 against Nebraska, 196 against Illinois, 216 against Northwestern and 188 at Michigan. He averages 181.4 a game. Six of eight is 75%, and -182 implies 64.5%. He missed the UCLA game with an injury, came back for the win at Michigan and isn't on Michigan State's latest availability report, which makes him the expected starter. The pick needs him to start.
His two misses came in lopsided road losses: 123 yards on 17 attempts at Notre Dame and 103 on 32 at Wisconsin. Last week is the other warning. Michigan State ran 43 times at Michigan with Brandon Tullis and Kenneth Williams and settled for five Liam Boyd field goals, though Milivojevic still threw for 188. He'll also be without receiver Rodney Bullard Jr. and tight end Jayden Savoury, and Washington's defense has a dozen interceptions.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
