Fact checked at 9:18 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) visits Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2) at 9:30 PM ET at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, with the Cowboys favored by 3.5 and the total at 73.5. Drew Mestemaker's passing game should keep rolling against a Texas Tech secondary that allows 287.0 passing yards a game, 136th in FBS. He has thrown for 304 or more yards in each of his last five games and has 29 touchdown passes on the season. In that game, Wyatt Young finishes drives and Caleb Hawkins keeps catching passes out of the backfield. The weather is the real risk. The National Weather Service has rain showers likely for most of the game, about a two-in-three chance after the first hour, with temperatures in the mid-40s and wind under 10 mph.
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Predictions
Pick #1Wyatt Young Anytime Touchdown−145
Young has scored in seven of Oklahoma State's nine games, six of eight against FBS teams. He has 46 catches for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns, and he has caught at least three passes in every game against an FBS opponent. His scores came against Oregon, West Virginia, UCF, Houston and Colorado, two at Iowa State, and one against Murray State, an FCS team. The two blanks were the opener at Tulsa and last week's 66-28 win at Kansas State, where Hawkins ran in three and caught one.
That's a better rate than the 59.2% that -145 implies, and the opponent helps. Texas Tech has allowed 18 touchdown passes, and West Virginia threw for 303 yards on 11 completions against it last week in a 53-48 Red Raiders win. Mestemaker threw 2, 3, 4, 5 and 4 touchdown passes in his last five games.
Justin Bowick is the competition, with 10 touchdown catches, and a night when Hawkins does the work from close range can leave Young out. Mestemaker is expected to start but isn't confirmed, and this pick needs him.
Pick #2Caleb Hawkins 38+ Receiving Yards−139
Over the last month Hawkins has turned into a real part of the passing game. He caught 7 passes for 125 yards at Houston, 5 for 72 against Colorado, 6 for 81 at Iowa State and 6 for 71 at Kansas State. That's 24 catches in four games, after 13 catches for 75 yards in his first five. He also carried 17 to 25 times in each of those four games, and he leads the team with 1,081 rushing yards.
The full season is weaker. He has 38 or more in four of eight games against FBS teams, and -139 implies 58.2%, so we're betting on the current role over the early one. Texas Tech gave up 297, 380, 172, 417 and 303 passing yards in its last five games, and safety Miquel Dingle Jr. is listed out on the latest availability report. If the rain pushes Oklahoma State toward shorter throws, a back who catches passes is where we'd want to be.
What beats this is a return to the early-season Hawkins: 2 catches for 32 against UCF, and no more than 32 in any of his first five games. It also rides on Mestemaker, the expected starter.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
