Fact checked at 9:18 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Texas and LSU meet in Tiger Stadium for the first time since 1953, and for the first time as SEC programs. Texas (7-2) is sixth in the College Football Playoff rankings and has won three in a row, the latest a 34-20 win at Missouri. LSU (6-3) is 21st after a 31-13 home loss to Alabama, its third loss of the season. "The games that we've needed to finish we've gone 0-for-3," LSU coach Lane Kiffin said this week.
Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET in Baton Rouge. LSU is favored by 4.5 with a total of 46.5, and in the spread market LSU has 71% of the money on 53% of the bets. We're not taking a side here. Neither offense has been able to rely on the run lately, so both quarterbacks should be throwing plenty whichever way this one tips, and each pick is a passing mark that quarterback has cleared in most of his games this season. Both are expected to start, and neither is on the conference's latest availability report.
Texas vs. LSU Predictions
Pick #1Sam Leavitt 230+ Passing Yards−197
Against FBS opponents this season, Leavitt has reached 230 in seven of eight games: 230 against Clemson, 344 against Louisiana Tech, 312 against Texas A&M, 275 at Kentucky, 289 against Mississippi State, 388 at Auburn and 380 against Alabama. His one miss was 158 at Ole Miss. He also threw for 177 against FCS McNeese, a 63-14 game in which LSU used three quarterbacks.
Volume carries this one. He threw 34, 38, 45 and 47 passes in LSU's last four games against FBS teams, and LSU ran for fewer than 100 yards in three of those four. He's averaging about 284 passing yards a game, so an ordinary night gets there.
The price is steep: -197 implies 66.3%, close to as far as we'd go. The risk is Texas's pass rush: the Longhorns have 27 sacks, and Colin Simmons is expected to play after a limited game at Missouri. But Alabama sacked Leavitt four times last week and he still threw for 380, and LSU's line has allowed 17 sacks in nine games. Ole Miss and Missouri each threw for 250 or more against Texas in two of its last three games. Leavitt is expected to start, though LSU hasn't confirmed it, and the bet needs him under center.
Pick #2Arch Manning 200+ Passing Yards−163
Texas can't count on the run. The Longhorns rank 15th in SEC play at 105.2 rushing yards a game, running back Hollywood Smothers is out, and LSU allows 104 rushing yards a game. As a 4.5-point road underdog, Texas is also the team more likely to be chasing.
Manning has thrown for 200 or more in six of his nine games this season and four of his last five: 260 against Oklahoma, 173 against Florida, 212 against Ole Miss, 220 against Mississippi State and 297 at Missouri, where he went 28 of 38 with three touchdowns. He did that last one without receiver Cam Coleman, who missed the game with a shoulder injury, so his yards haven't hinged on one target. Coleman isn't on this week's availability reports, although one report says he isn't at full strength.
At -163 the implied chance is 62.0%, and his season record clears it without much to spare. LSU's pass rush is what could sink it: LSU has 21 sacks in conference play, Texas has allowed 23 in six league games, and left tackle Trevor Goosby is out. His misses this season were 161, 173 and 195, the Florida game on just 20 attempts, so a short night of throws can leave him under. He's expected to start but not confirmed, and this pick rides on him playing.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
