Fact checked at 9:20 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:24 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC) has won four straight, sits No. 17 in the College Football Playoff rankings and visits Arkansas (3-6, 1-5) at 7:45 PM ET at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville. The Gamecocks are 7.5-point favorites with the total at 51.5. We think South Carolina wins by more than a touchdown in a game that never becomes a shootout. Arkansas scores 20.0 points a game and runs for 112.4. South Carolina is without running back Matt Fuller, receivers Nyck Harbor and Nitro Tuggle and three offensive linemen, and quarterback LaNorris Sellers is listed as probable with a sore ankle. A score in the high 20s against the teens covers the spread and stays under the total.
South Carolina vs. Arkansas Predictions
Pick #1South Carolina -7.5−111
When Arkansas has lost to good teams, it usually hasn't been close. Utah beat the Razorbacks 43-10, Georgia won 45-17 in Fayetteville, Texas A&M won 34-7 and Missouri won 34-10 at Razorback Stadium two weeks ago. Arkansas is 0-3 at home in SEC play this season. South Carolina's streak runs through Florida (38-19), Tennessee (27-24), Oklahoma (42-25) and Texas A&M (17-9), and that last one is the best measuring stick here: the Aggies put 34 on Arkansas and 9 on South Carolina.
Then there's Sellers, who has 637 rushing yards. Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown just ran for 121 yards on 23 carries against this defense in a 26-23 Auburn win. The average of 46 public projections has South Carolina by 10.7, and the bigger spread bets lean the same way, with 49% of the money on the Gamecocks from 36% of the bets.
It isn't a free cover. South Carolina has won by eight or more in four of its eight games against FBS teams, and -111 implies 52.6%. The ankle is the risk. Sellers got hurt late in the first half against Texas A&M, finished the game and ran 41 yards for the clinching touchdown, but a limited Sellers behind a line missing three players is a different offense. Arkansas has also taken two SEC games to the wire, losing 24-17 to Tennessee and 26-23 at Auburn, and the Razorbacks draw 24% of the moneyline money from 7% of the bets. If Sellers doesn't play, this pick is off.
Pick #2Under 51.5−109
For this game to go over, Arkansas has to hold up its end, and it hasn't been doing that. The Razorbacks have scored 7, 17, 31, 10 and 23 in their last five, and four of those five games stayed under 51.5. The 31 at Vanderbilt is the only time in SEC play they have scored more than 23. An offense averaging 112.4 rushing yards needs long drives, and Arkansas doesn't finish many. South Carolina has allowed 19, 24, 25 and 9 during its streak.
South Carolina's offense is also a lot thinner than the one that scored 42 at Oklahoma. Fuller, with 530 rushing yards, is out. So is Harbor, who caught four passes for 70 yards last week, along with Tuggle and three linemen. Sellers is expected to play on a bad ankle. Last week against Texas A&M, he was hurt in the first half and played through it, and the final was 17-9, 26 points total. Expect fewer designed runs and more clock. That's how the favorite covers and the Under still wins, with something like 31-17 or 27-13.
The record at this number cuts both ways. Arkansas's games against FBS teams have stayed under 51.5 in five of eight, but South Carolina's have done it in only two of eight, and Arkansas's defense has allowed 34 or more four times against FBS teams. The -109 price implies 52.2%. The public is on the other side: the Over has 91% of the bets and 77% of the money, while the Under has 22% of the money from 8% of the bets. What beats this pick is a healthy Sellers breaking long runs.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
