Fact checked at 9:11 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
USC (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten) visits Indiana (8-1, 5-1) at 3:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Indiana is ninth in the College Football Playoff rankings and USC is 18th, and both teams are coming off a bye. USC's last game was a 30-18 win over Ohio State. Indiana won its last two in overtime. The Hoosiers are 9.5-point favorites, and the total sits at 50.5.
We expect a low, grinding game. Indiana's defense gives up 12.4 points a game, and its offense has been stuck for a month. Josh Hoover hurt his throwing arm against Ohio State, Grant Wilson replaced him at halftime of the Minnesota game, and coach Curt Cignetti hasn't named a starter. Leading rusher Turbo Richard and starting guard Joe Brunner are listed out on the latest Big Ten availability report. A close game with few points also keeps USC handing the ball to King Miller, and both picks come from that.
USC vs. Indiana Predictions
Pick #1Under 50.5−110
Indiana's last four games finished 20-17, 19-15, 13-6 and 23-16. Two went to overtime, and the highest combined score was 39. The offense averaged 17.8 points over that stretch, and now it plays without Richard and Brunner, behind either a quarterback nursing an arm injury or his backup.
The defense hasn't slipped at all. Indiana allows 12.4 points and 75.6 rushing yards a game, and nobody has scored more than 23 on it. One of those nine games was a 55-0 win over Howard, an FCS team; against FBS opponents, Indiana has allowed 112 points in eight games. USC's recent games have come down as well. Three of its last four stayed under 50.5: 48 points against Ohio State, 31 at Wisconsin and 46 against Washington. Across the two teams' 17 games against FBS opponents, 9 finished under this number. The forecast is dry, around 50 degrees, with light wind.
The price of -110 implies 52.4%. What could beat it is USC's offense, which averages 32.4 points behind Jayden Maiava, the expected starter. Bettors are on that side too: 60% of both the bets and the money on the total are on the Over. And a healthy Hoover after two weeks off could look more like the quarterback of the early season. Still, a month of 17.8 points a game is a lot of evidence to throw out for one afternoon.
Pick #2King Miller 50+ Rushing Yards−124
Miller has reached 50 rushing yards in 7 of his 9 games this season, including 4 of his last 5, and he has carried at least 11 times in every game. He has 680 yards on 138 carries (4.9 a carry), so 50 takes about 10 or 11 decent runs. The backfield is more clearly his now, too. Waymond Jordan, listed beside him on the depth chart, was active but didn't play at Wisconsin, and his role has shrunk as the season has gone on.
His last five: 74 against Oregon, 81 against Washington, 102 at Penn State, 7 at Wisconsin and 78 against Ohio State. The miss was a 24-7 loss in which USC ran for minus-18 yards as a team.
Indiana is a tough draw. Three of its last five opponents had a back clear 50 (Nebraska's Jamal Rule with 53, Ohio State's Bo Jackson with 56, Minnesota's TJ Thomas with 54), but none got past 56, and Jackson needed 18 carries for his 56 before running for 121 against USC two weeks later. At -124, the implied probability is 55.4%. Miller gets there if the game stays close enough for USC to keep running, and that is the same low-scoring game the Under needs. If Indiana pulls away early, USC starts throwing and his carries dry up.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
