Fact checked at 5:47 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 4:06 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
No. 21 USC (2-0) visits California (2-1) at 11:00 PM ET at Haas Pavilion in Berkeley. Three days ago both teams played at the same Lake Tahoe event. USC beat Wichita State 93-86 behind 32 points from Rodney Rice and 30 from Alijah Arenas, and Cal lost 86-68 to Houston. USC is laying 8.5 tonight and the total is 161.5, and both numbers are built on that one night. But 37 of USC's 93 points were free throws, and Cal's 68 came against the top-rated defense on KenPom. We see a slower, closer game than the market is asking for, with a final in the 150s and Cal inside the number. Cal has played all three games without center Lee Dort, its lone returning starter, who is day to day with a leg injury. Men's college basketball has no availability report, so starting fives are projected.
USC vs. California Predictions
Pick #1Under 161.5−105
Sixty-two of the 179 points in USC's win over Wichita State came at the foul line. The teams combined for 56 fouls and 78 free throws. That game is why this total sits in the 160s, and Cal doesn't play that kind of game. The Bears have been called for 11, 14 and 15 fouls in their three games, and T-Rank has them 14th in the country at keeping opponents off the line. USC doesn't shoot many threes either. The Trojans went 2-for-14 from deep against Wichita State and rank 340th on T-Rank in three-point attempt rate.
T-Rank projects a 155-point total and DRatings 158, both under this number. Cal has played two Division I teams, beating Radford 84-70 and losing to Houston, and both games finished at 154. (The 115-86 opener was against Division II Adams State.) Cal's 44% three-point shooting came mostly from those two home wins. Against Houston the Bears went 9-for-26. It's early, too: USC has played two games and Cal three.
The -105 price implies 51.2%, and 85% of the money on the total is on the Under from 33% of the bets. Pace is how this loses. USC is 22nd in KenPom's adjusted tempo and has forced 37 turnovers in two games, and Cal gave the ball away 16 times against Houston. If those turnovers become layups, the score climbs fast.
Pick #2California +8.5−110
T-Rank and DRatings both project USC by 3. We're not calling for the upset. ESPN's BPI gives USC a 74.3% chance to win, and T-Rank makes it 62%. But this is USC's first true road game of the season, and the Trojans beat Wichita State by seven on a neutral floor and needed those 37 free throws to do it. KenPom ranks USC 33rd, Wichita State 80th and Cal 102nd.
Cal doesn't have to repeat its program-record 17 threes against Radford to stay inside 8.5 at home. Michael Cooper has made 15 of 24 from deep off the bench, including 5 of 8 against Houston, and Nojus Indrusaitis scored 30 against Radford.
At -110, the implied probability is 52.4%. The spread money disagrees with us: USC has 86% of it on 63% of the bets. And this pick can lose the same way the Under does. Without Dort, Cal is thin inside, and Houston scored 50 points in the paint and 22 off turnovers. USC starts the Ratliff twins, Adonis and Darius, up front. Its own frontcourt is short too. Eric Reibe and Christian Collins haven't played this season, and Jacob Cofie and Darius Ratliff both fouled out against Wichita State. If USC owns the paint and the turnover battle the way Houston did, the margin and the total both grow.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
