Fact checked at 5:42 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 4:54 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
No. 20 Michigan (1-1) hosts Marquette (2-0) at 7:00 PM ET at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. The defending national champions are in their first season under coach Mike Boynton Jr. They beat Oakland 84-68 at home, lost 85-77 to UConn in Boston in a rematch of last season's title game, and made 14 of 62 threes across the two. Marquette's wins, 78-43 over Mercyhurst and 93-32 over Detroit Mercy, came at home against low-major teams, and this is its first road game. Two routs like that don't tell us how good Marquette is. The ratings do rank its defense among the best in the country, and Michigan is a 3.5-point favorite that hasn't shot well. Look for a close, low-scoring game that stays under the total and that Marquette can win outright. Men's college basketball has no availability report, so starting fives are projected.
Marquette vs. Michigan Predictions
Pick #1Under 156.5−109
Neither team has shot it as well as it has defended. KenPom ranks Marquette's defense 11th in the country and Michigan's 31st. Michigan is at 22.6% on threes, 335th on T-Rank, and Trey McKenney has seven of the team's 14 makes. Marquette is at 26.7%. Its first two opponents made 9 of 55 threes and averaged 37.5 points. Both were low-major teams, so discount that as much as you like.
T-Rank projects a 153-point total, 3.5 below this line. Marquette's two games finished with 121 and 125 points, and Michigan's home opener with 152.
Fouls could push it over. Michigan has been called for 24 and 27, Oakland and UConn shot 66 free throws between them, and the UConn game finished with 162 points. Marquette has made 23 of 36 free throws this season. Michigan also plays fast, 64th in tempo on KenPom. At -109 the break-even is 52.2%. The betting is close to even, with 46% of the tickets and 51% of the money on the Over.
Pick #2Marquette Moneyline+145
Two of the public ratings don't make Michigan much of a favorite. KenPom has Marquette 26th and Michigan 31st, and ESPN's matchup predictor gives Michigan a 50.2% chance to win. +145 implies 40.8%. T-Rank disagrees. It has Michigan 21st, Marquette 23rd, and Michigan winning by 4.5.
A close, low-scoring game puts a premium on possessions, and Marquette has been the better team with the ball. It has 14 turnovers against 48 assists in two games and has forced 37. Michigan guard Elliot Cadeau had five turnovers and fouled out against UConn. J.P. Estrella averages 17.0 points and 10.5 rebounds, but he fouled out against Oakland in 21 minutes and had four fouls against UConn. Center Moustapha Thiam missed the opener with an illness, then picked up four fouls in 15 minutes against UConn. Marquette's forwards, Royce Parham (14.0 points a game), Joshua Clark and Sananda Fru, lead a team that has outrebounded its opponents 97-62.
Only 17% of the moneyline tickets are on Marquette, but they carry 28% of the money. The spread money is on Michigan, with 60% of it from 44% of the tickets. McKenney is the threat. He scored all 22 of his points against UConn after halftime and averages 19.5. If a second Michigan shooter gets going at home, the Wolverines can pull away from a team that hasn't played a road game and is shooting poorly from three itself.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
