Fact checked at 5:45 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 4:42 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
Colgate (0-2) visits No. 13 St. John's (2-0) at 7:00 PM ET at Carnesecca Arena, the Red Storm's on-campus gym in Queens. St. John's has shown two versions of itself. It beat Monmouth 78-63 at Carnesecca, then ran Iona out of Madison Square Garden, 104-65. Colgate lost 90-76 at Washington and 77-74 at Drexel. A 28.5-point spread and a 156.5 total ask St. John's for another night in the 90s. The public ratings see a smaller game, St. John's by 20-something with a total at or under that number, and we're with the ratings on both picks. Every figure here comes from two games per team. St. John's forward Babacar Sane missed the Iona game with a sprained ankle and is expected back. Men's college basketball has no availability report, so both starting fives are projected.
Colgate vs. St. John's Predictions
Pick #1Colgate +28.5−110
T-Rank has St. John's by 27. DRatings has it by 22, and the score predictions in three published previews put the margin between 24 and 27. None of them gets to 29. The -110 price works out to 52.4%.
Turnovers are how St. John's builds a margin that big. It has forced 37 in two games and scored 47 points off them, about a quarter of its 182. Against Iona it was 26 points off 19 turnovers and a lead that reached 43. Colgate has given the ball away only 19 times in two road games, and T-Rank ranks its turnover rate 40th in the country. St. John's ranks 22nd in turnover rate forced, so that gets tested tonight.
Monmouth turned it over 18 times at Carnesecca and still lost by only 15, on a night St. John's shot 6 of 20 from three. That was the Red Storm's one game in this building this season, and they were laying 27.5. The school says Rick Pitino is 20-0 there over his four seasons, with an average winning margin of 24.1 points.
Colgate can also shoot. It has put up 58 threes in two games, 36 of them at Drexel. Sophomore forward Andrew Alekseyenko is averaging 22.5 points and 12.5 rebounds and is 7 of 11 from deep, and Sam Wright scored 21 at Drexel.
The Iona game is the warning. If the press turns Colgate over the way it did the Gaels, St. John's can get near 100 again and 28.5 points won't be enough. Colgate has allowed 90 and 77, and Washington shot 36 free throws against it.
Pick #2Under 156.5−107
The projections behind the first pick mostly get there by taking points off St. John's. DRatings projects 152 total points. A second model cited in one preview is near 154, and the three previews' score predictions add up to between 141 and 147. T-Rank is the high one at 157, half a point over the line. T-Rank and DRatings agree almost exactly on Colgate's points, so the five-point gap between them is all St. John's.
We'll take the lower St. John's number. The 104 against Iona came on 13-of-28 shooting from three and those 26 points off turnovers. Against Monmouth, St. John's scored 78. If Colgate keeps its turnovers down, St. John's has to get more of its points in the half court.
At the other end, St. John's has allowed 63 and 65 points and ranks 14th in adjusted defense on T-Rank. Colgate's 76 and 74 came against Washington and Drexel, and the Raiders are shooting 45.3% on twos and are 20 of 36 at the foul line. The -107 price implies a 51.7% chance.
Fouls are the risk. Colgate has committed 43 in two games and its opponents have shot 58 free throws, while St. John's is 37 of 49 at the line. Both Colgate games (166 and 151 points) went over their closing totals. And another shooting night like the one against Iona beats both of tonight's picks.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
