Fact checked at 5:47 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 5:46 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
No. 9 UCLA (2-0) hosts Arkansas-Pine Bluff (0-2) at 9:00 PM ET at Pauley Pavilion. The programs have never met. UCLA beat then-No. 5 Arizona 84-75 in Las Vegas, then came home and buried North Florida 114-63 behind a 35-0 run in the first half. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has lost 106-61 at then-No. 12 Arkansas and 109-53 at Baylor. The market wants UCLA to win by 45 and score about 100 doing it. The public ratings come in lower on both counts, with UCLA winning by 42 or fewer and a total around 156. We're taking the ratings' side, which means UCLA finishing in the 90s. Bruins big man Filip Jovic (ankle) has not played this season, and center Xavier Booker missed the North Florida game with a concussion. UCLA hasn't announced either player's status for tonight. Men's college basketball has no availability report, so both starting fives are projected.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. UCLA Predictions
Pick #1Arkansas-Pine Bluff +44.5−105
Four public projections all stop short of 44.5. T-Rank makes it 41.8, ESPN's BPI 36.0 and DRatings 27.7, and another public model has it at 34. At -105, the break-even is 51.2%.
The ratings stop short because of pace. UCLA ranks 234th in adjusted tempo on KenPom and 300th on T-Rank. Arkansas and Baylor, who beat the Golden Lions by 45 and 56, are both in KenPom's top 70. T-Rank projects about 73 possessions tonight, and that's not many trips for building a 45-point lead. UCLA's frontcourt is also short. Jovic hasn't played and Booker missed the last game, so the reserves would have to keep adding to the lead after the starters sit.
Now the bad news about the Golden Lions. They have turned it over 58 times in two games, 34 of them at Baylor, where they trailed 58-13 at halftime. They are 0-2 against the spread. KenPom ranks them 357th of 365 teams, and UCLA beat North Florida by 51 as a 31.5-point favorite. Another night like the one at Baylor hands UCLA easy baskets at any pace.
Pick #2Under 157.5−115
This is the same view of UCLA's pace, measured in points. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has scored 61 and 53 and is shooting 37.1%. UCLA's defense ranks 13th on KenPom and has held its two opponents to 34.1%. If the Golden Lions land near their 57.0 average, the Over needs about 100 from UCLA, and UCLA plays at the slowest tempo Arkansas-Pine Bluff has faced this season.
The price implies 53.5%, and the projections come in under the number. T-Rank has 156 total points, DRatings 156.1, and a third public model 156.
The results so far point the other way. All four games these teams have played went past 157.5 (167 and 162 for Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 159 and 177 for UCLA). The Golden Lions have allowed 106 and 109 points, and Arkansas and Baylor each shot 42 free throws against them. Arkansas-Pine Bluff plays fast itself, 32nd in tempo on KenPom, and North Florida, which gave up those 114 to UCLA, ranks sixth. UCLA shot 54% and made 14 threes that night. A repeat would beat this Under no matter the pace.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
