Fact checked at 9:10 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Tennessee (7-2, 4-2 SEC), No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings, visits Kyle Field at 3:00 PM ET to face a Texas A&M team that is 4-5 and 1-5 in the league but 4-1 at home. Tennessee is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is 43.5. The Volunteers beat Kentucky 34-6 last week, while the Aggies lost 17-9 at South Carolina without reaching the end zone.
This sets up as a slow, physical game. With George MacIntyre at quarterback, Tennessee has leaned on DeSean Bishop's carries and its defense. Texas A&M is short on receivers: Terry Bussey, Kelshaun Johnson and Ashton Bethel-Roman are out on the latest SEC availability report, Mario Craver is questionable, and two offensive linemen are out. If this game stays on the ground with the clock running, both picks win. MacIntyre has started Tennessee's last four games and is expected to start again, though that hasn't been confirmed. Marcel Reed has started all nine games for Texas A&M.
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Predictions
Pick #1Under 43.5−108
Tennessee's four games with MacIntyre starting finished with 41, 36, 51 and 40 points, so three of the four stayed under this number. He has thrown two touchdown passes all season and attempted just 14 passes against Kentucky. The Volunteers allow 15.1 points a game. That is an offense built to shorten games next to a defense that doesn't give much back.
Texas A&M's offense has stalled away from home. It scored 6 at Missouri, 20 at Alabama and 9 at South Carolina in its last three games against FBS opponents, and in Columbia it piled up 457 yards and still scored only on three field goals. It now plays without three receivers, with Craver uncertain and two linemen out. Tennessee's drives won't all end in touchdowns either: the school says opponents have scored on 61.9% of their red-zone trips against the Aggies.
The bigger tickets are on this side, with 52% of the money on the Under from 39% of the bets. The -108 price works out to a 51.9% chance, and 9 of the two teams' 16 games against FBS opponents finished under 43.5.
Kyle Field is the risk. Texas A&M has scored at least 21 in all five home games, one of them against The Citadel, a non-FBS team. A defensive or return touchdown would also eat a big piece of a number this low.
Pick #2DeSean Bishop 120+ Rushing Yards−153
Bishop's workload jumped five games ago and has stayed there. He never carried more than 20 times in any of Tennessee's first four games. In the five since, he has carried 34, 19, 32, 32 and 25 times for 220, 138, 159, 120 and 109 yards, which is 120 or more in four of five. Against FBS opponents over the whole season he's at five of eight, and one of those misses was the Kennesaw State game he left with an injury in the first half. The -153 price implies 60.5%, and even the longer record clears it.
On paper, Texas A&M's recent run defense looks stingy: South Carolina ran for 109 yards and Alabama for 68 in its last two games against FBS teams. Those teams ran only 27 and 28 times, though. Tennessee has run at least 35 times in each of its last five games, and Missouri ran 44 times for 247 yards against this defense. We're betting on volume. Bishop carries the SEC's top rushing offense, which averages 216.0 yards a game, and the school credits him with 369 fourth-quarter rushing yards, the most in the country.
The depth behind him is thinner now. Daune Morris, who had between three and eight carries in each of the last five games, is out with a broken leg. Up front, starting left guard Nic Moore and Wendell Moe Jr. are both out. The bad script for this one is Texas A&M scoring early at home and Tennessee having to throw.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
