Fact checked at 9:20 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:28 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Virginia Tech (6-3, 3-3 ACC) is back home after a 51-28 loss at SMU, and Stanford (4-5, 2-4 ACC) comes in off an open date that followed a 52-24 loss at Louisville. Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, with Virginia Tech a 15.5-point favorite and the total at 57.5. The story is Stanford's defense, which allows 37.3 points a game, 136th of 138 teams nationally. Virginia Tech should score plenty, with its quarterback punching in short touchdowns himself, and both picks cash in that game.
Ethan Grunkemeyer is expected to start but not confirmed. He looked banged up late in the loss at SMU, waved off his backup and stayed in, and he is not on the latest conference availability report. Davis Warren is Stanford's expected starter, also unconfirmed.
Stanford vs. Virginia Tech Predictions
Pick #1Ethan Grunkemeyer Anytime Touchdown−145
Grunkemeyer has run for a touchdown in six of his eight games against FBS opponents, and in four of his last five. The recent ones were 1-yard runs against Pittsburgh, California and SMU and a 20-yarder against Georgia Tech. The only FBS blanks were Boston College and the 20-16 win at Clemson. At -145 the price implies a 59.2% chance; his season rate against FBS teams is 75%.
He isn't breaking long runs. He has 18 rushing yards on 54 carries over the last five games, so the touchdowns come from Virginia Tech giving him the ball at the goal line, and that's why this defense matters. Stanford's last four FBS opponents scored 52, 28, 58 and 57 points, and Louisville and Notre Dame ran for 296 and 361 yards. More drives that reach the goal line mean more of the 1-yard carries he has been getting.
There are ways to lose. Jeffrey Overton Jr. ran for two touchdowns at SMU, and Grunkemeyer threw 10 touchdown passes over the same five games, each one a drive he didn't finish himself. Virginia Tech also lists three offensive linemen out: Nathaniel Wright, Lucas Austin and Marlen Bright. If the knock from SMU slows him, short-yardage carries could go to someone else, and the pick needs him on the field.
Pick #2Over 57.5−115
Stanford's games against FBS teams have gone over 57.5 six times in eight, and Virginia Tech's three home games against FBS opponents all cleared it, with totals of 65, 68 and 58. Take out Elon, a non-FBS team that scored 7, and Stanford has allowed 41.1 points a game. Virginia Tech scored 44, 33 and 34 in those home games. The -115 implies a 53.5% chance.
The obvious objection is Stanford's offense on the road: 41 points in four road games (7 at Duke, 3 at Wake Forest, 7 at Notre Dame, 24 at Louisville). But three of those four games still went over this number, because the defense gave up 57, 58 and 52. The Over doesn't need much from Stanford if Virginia Tech gets into the 40s, and Warren has shown he can add some: 303 yards and four touchdowns in the 31-28 win over NC State, 270 and three at Louisville. Virginia Tech's defense gave up 51 at SMU and 35 to Pittsburgh at home.
Then there's the weather. The National Weather Service has sustained wind of 9 to 10 mph during the game, gusts of 22 to 25 mph and temperatures falling from the high 30s to the mid 30s. Gusts like that can knock down deep balls and long kicks. The steady wind isn't strong, though, and Virginia Tech's best route to points here is on the ground and in the red zone against a run defense that has been gashed, not 50-yard throws.
Bettors see it the other way: 81% of the bets and 88% of the money on the total are on the Under. We'd take that seriously, but -115 asks for only a bit better than a coin flip against one of the three worst scoring defenses in the country.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
