Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB ALDS Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/7)

Fact checked at 7:50 AM ET, Oct 7, 2026

Odds as of Oct 7, 7:06 AM ET

The Rays are one win from the American League Championship Series. They won the first two games of this best-of-five Division Series at Tropicana Field, 1-0 on Saturday and 5-2 on Monday, and the Yankees have scored two runs in 18 innings, both on Ben Rice solo homers in Game 2. Take away Rice and Austin Wells and New York's hitters are 1-for-46 in the series. Game 3 moves to the Bronx with Max Fried (2.80 ERA in 20 regular-season starts) facing Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA in 31 starts), and the Yankees are still without Aaron Judge, who was left off the series roster with a right calf strain.

Pitching has decided this series so far, and nothing about Wednesday's matchup suggests that changes. So we're betting on how many runs get scored, not on who wins. The Yankees are -161 on the consensus moneyline with the Rays at +135, almost exactly where it opened (-160/+135). The total is 7, with the Over at -125 and the Under at +105 after opening at -120 and -100. We're passing on the Yankees run line at +138. A two-run win needs runs from a lineup that has five hits in two games, and we don't see where they come from.

Game 3 is Wednesday, Oct. 7, at 8:00 PM ET at Yankee Stadium, on TBS, truTV, UniMas and HBO Max.

Rays vs. Yankees Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 7 (+105)
• Pick #2: Max Fried Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-142)

PICK #1: Under 7 (+105)

Martinez has been at his best on the road. He went 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA in 16 road starts, and in two starts in the Bronx he allowed three runs over 12 innings. He went at least six innings in 18 of his 31 starts. On the other side, Fried held Boston to one run over six innings in the Wild Card clincher, and hitters batted .201 against him this season. Both staffs were among the stingiest in baseball: New York allowed 601 runs, second-fewest in the majors, and Tampa Bay allowed 650, sixth-fewest.

Neither starter may go deep, and that doesn't bother us much. Fried has said his leash will probably be "pretty small," and this is Martinez's first postseason start. The bullpens behind them are fresh after Tuesday's off day. The Rays' traditional relievers have recorded only seven of the 54 outs in this series, and no Yankees reliever has thrown more than 25 pitches in an outing since the Wild Card round began. The forecast for first pitch is about 61 degrees and clear, with wind around 8 to 9 mph.

The bigger bets are on our side. The Under has drawn 25% of the money on just 12% of the tickets, and a few books hang 7.5 with the Under at -130. At +105, you only need this to land 48.8% of the time.

There are reasons to worry. Eighty-seven percent of tickets are on the Over, and the price has drifted that way since the open, from -120 to -125. The two Fried-Martinez meetings this season produced nine runs on April 11 and seven on Sept. 22. Monday's 5-2 game also reached seven, and the Yankees scored nine runs in each of their two Wild Card wins at home. Seven is a real possibility, which means a push. If you'd rather bet only against the Rays' bats, Rays Team Total Under 3.5 (-149) is the same idea from one side of the scoreboard.

PICK #2: Max Fried Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-142)

This bet goes straight at Fried. He allowed one earned run or none in 12 of his 20 regular-season starts and in four of his last five (1, 1, 1, 1, 4), then gave up one run over six innings against Boston. Count the playoff start and he's at 13 of 21. The -142 price implies 58.7%, so the edge is small, but he rarely gives up the big swing: four home runs in 112.2 innings, a .201 batting average against and a 0.99 WHIP.

His short leash also works in this bet's favor. An early hook gives the Rays fewer innings to get to him, and his outs line sits at 15.5 with the Under a heavy favorite. Tampa Bay hit .248 with a .679 OPS against left-handers this season, compared with .263 and .752 against right-handers, and the Rays are expected to start the right-handed side of their platoons against him.

The problem is Tampa Bay itself. Fried is 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA in seven career starts against the Rays, but both meetings this year went the wrong way for this bet: three earned runs over eight innings on April 11 and four over 6.2 innings on Sept. 22. When he missed this season, he missed by a lot. All eight of his starts over this line had three or more earned runs. And a quick hook cuts both ways, since runners he leaves on base are charged to him if the bullpen lets them score.

Both of our picks need Fried to keep the Rays quiet, so one bad night beats them both. Size them as one opinion, not two. Lineups aren't posted yet, and if Fried is scratched, skip this bet.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.