Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, MLB ALCS Game 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/18)

Fact checked at 8:40 AM ET, Oct 18, 2026

Odds as of Oct 18, 7:40 AM ET

The American League Championship Series is a best-of-three now. Tampa Bay's 7-3 win in Game 4 on Saturday evened things at 2-2, and whoever takes Game 5 flies to Tropicana Field for Games 6 and 7 needing one more win to reach the World Series.

We've seen this pitching matchup before, and it was a gem. On July 26 at Tropicana Field, Drew Rasmussen and Parker Messick hooked up in a 1-0 Rays win. Rasmussen gave up one hit over seven innings and struck out nine; Messick allowed one earned run in 7 2/3. The rainout earlier in the week lined up the rematch. Rasmussen pitches on five days' rest, the schedule he worked on most of the regular season, and Messick goes on normal rest after Game 2. Rasmussen finished the regular season with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 172 innings. Messick's ERA was 2.56 over 186 1/3.

Neither lineup gives you much reason to worry. Cleveland scored 678 runs, 24th in the majors, and Tampa Bay allowed 650, sixth fewest. The bullpens are rested too. Cleveland held Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski out of Game 4, and Ian Seymour was the only Rays reliever to throw more than 16 pitches.

Tampa Bay is a slight favorite at -135, with Cleveland +113, after opening at -130 and +107. The total is 6.5, Over -102 and Under -118, and 80% of the bets and 82% of the money are on the Under. The Rays went 98-64 in the regular season, the Guardians 85-77.

First pitch is 5:08 PM ET on Sunday at Progressive Field in Cleveland, on TBS and truTV. It should be sunny and dry, 61 degrees at first pitch and cooling into the mid-50s, with a light south wind.

Rays vs. Guardians Predictions

• Pick #1: Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-127)
• Pick #2: Under 6.5 (-118)

PICK #1: Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-127)

Since Aug. 1, postseason included, Rasmussen has held opponents to one earned run or none in eight of 12 starts. He did it in all four of his September starts, then threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees in the ALDS opener on Oct. 3, allowing one hit and striking out 10.

Cleveland is the kind of lineup you want on the other side of this bet. The Guardians ranked 24th in runs and hit .239 as a team. Opponents hit .199 off Rasmussen this year.

At -127 the break-even is 55.9%, and his form since August clears it. He doesn't have to pitch deep, either. Once he's out, a run only counts against him if he left that runner on base, and he has a fresh bullpen behind him.

What worries me is Game 1. Cleveland got eight hits and two earned runs off him in six innings on Oct. 12, and two earned runs loses this bet. He also gave up two in his April start at Progressive Field.

PICK #2: Under 6.5 (-118)

Messick has had Tampa Bay's number all season. He allowed one earned run in 5 2/3 innings in April, one in 7 2/3 in July and none in five innings in Game 2. That's two earned runs in 18 1/3 innings. It isn't spotless, since all three Rays runs off him in Game 2 were unearned and those still count toward the total. Cleveland would like five or six innings from him before handing the ball to Smith, Gaddis and Sabrowski.

Seven of the 10 meetings between these teams this season finished with six runs or fewer, Games 2 and 3 of this series among them. The exceptions were an 11-3 Rays win in July and the two 7-3 games in this series. Messick started none of those three, and Cleveland ran Game 4 as a bullpen game.

-118 implies a 54.1% chance. Cleveland did score seven against Rasmussen and the Rays bullpen in Game 1, and if either starter leaves early, the bullpens have a lot of innings to cover.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.