Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, MLB ALCS Game 4 (Take 2) Odds & Best Bets (10/17)

Fact checked at 7:43 AM ET, Oct 17, 2026

Odds as of Oct 17, 7:39 AM ET

Rain washed out Friday night's Game 4, so the Rays and Guardians try again Saturday at Progressive Field. Game 5 moves to Sunday in Cleveland, and Games 6 and 7, if needed, go back to Tropicana Field. Cleveland still leads the series 2-1, winning the opener 7-3 and Game 3 3-2 around a 3-1 Tampa Bay win in Game 2.

We're standing by the same picks as yesterday, the Under 6.5 and the Guardians team total Under 2.5, and the prices have barely moved. How a Friday ticket settles after a rainout depends on the book's postponement rules. If your Friday bets are still open, you already hold both picks.

The weather is the biggest change. Friday's forecast called for rain and a north wind gusting into the 30s, blowing in from center field. Saturday night should be mostly clear with barely a breeze, 48 degrees at first pitch and sliding into the mid-40s. That takes the wind out of the case, though it's still a cold night with nothing blowing out.

The extra day also helped both bullpens. Cleveland's late-inning group of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski and Daniel Espino finished Game 3 on Thursday and would have pitched on back-to-back nights. Now everyone is rested. Cleveland will open with Shawn Armstrong and build the rest of the game from its bullpen, while Nick Martinez still starts for Tampa Bay.

These picks were never just a weather play. Cleveland's run totals against Tampa Bay this year read 2, 0, 3, 3, 0, 0, 7, 1 and 3. The Guardians finished 24th in the majors with 678 runs, and the Rays allowed 650, sixth fewest. Martinez has a 3.10 ERA over 180 innings and hasn't given up a run to Cleveland this season, with seven scoreless innings on April 28 and six more on July 25.

The moneyline is close to even, Rays -116 and Guardians -104, and the total sits at 6.5. First pitch is 8:00 PM ET on TBS and truTV.

Rays vs. Guardians Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 6.5 (-112)
• Pick #2: Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 (+114)

PICK #1: Under 6.5 (-112)

Seven of the nine meetings this year ended with six runs or fewer. The exceptions were an 11-3 Rays rout in July and the 7-3 series opener, and Games 2 and 3 produced four and five runs. Put a bottom-third offense against one of the league's stingiest staffs on a cold night, and runs are going to be scarce.

Martinez won't go deep. He hasn't finished a fourth inning since Sep 22, and his Division Series start on Oct 7 ended after 3 2/3 innings and 63 pitches. A rested Rays bullpen makes that easier to live with. The bigger worry is Cleveland's middle innings, where the bulk arms haven't started a game recently and one bad inning can turn a 3-2 game into 6-3. At -112 the Under needs a 52.8% hit rate, well short of what these teams have done all year.

PICK #2: Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 (+114)

If the game stays low, Cleveland is the team more likely to be stuck. The Guardians have scored two or fewer in five of nine meetings, including three shutouts, two of them started by Martinez, and they managed one run in Game 2. Over the regular season they were held to two or fewer in 48 of 162 games, so Tampa Bay has been much tougher on them than their usual opponent.

At +114 the break-even is 46.7%, and five of nine sits well above that. Martinez's recent form is the worry: 12 hits and six runs over his last two starts. Cleveland also scored seven in Game 1.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.