Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, MLB ALCS Game 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/16)
Fact checked at 9:20 AM ET, Oct 16, 2026
Odds as of Oct 16, 9:12 AM ET
Cleveland leads the best-of-seven American League Championship Series 2-1 after Thursday's 3-2 win, settled by Petey Halpin's two-run homer in the fifth inning. Tampa Bay got three hits and struck out 13 times. The Guardians took the opener 7-3 and the Rays won Game 2 by a 3-1 score, so the last two games produced nine runs between them.
Game 4 starts Friday at 8:00 PM ET at Progressive Field on TBS and truTV. Tampa Bay is expected to start Nick Martinez, who has a 3.10 ERA over 180 innings this season and threw 13 scoreless innings against Cleveland in two regular-season starts. Cleveland has not named a starter and is expected to piece the night together from its bullpen.
Progressive Field is open air, and its center field points almost due north. The National Weather Service has 53 degrees at first pitch, falling to about 50 by 11 PM, with rain likely through the late innings and a north wind of 16 to 18 mph gusting into the mid-30s. That wind blows in from center, and a local station has gusts as high as 40 mph Friday night.
These teams have played low-scoring games all year, and tonight's conditions point the same way. Seven of their nine meetings stayed under 6.5 runs, and Tampa Bay's staff has held Cleveland to 19 runs in those nine games, 2.1 per game. Look for more of the same tonight: a low game with Cleveland's lineup held down. The moneyline is close to a coin flip, Rays -110 and Guardians -109, with the total at 6.5.
Rays vs. Guardians Predictions
- Pick #1: Under 6.5 (-110)
- Pick #2: Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 (+120)
PICK #1: Under 6.5 (-110)
Seven of nine Rays-Guardians games this season finished under this number, at an average of 5.2 runs, and the three ALCS games went 10, 4 and 5. Both staffs were among the best in the regular season: Tampa Bay allowed 650 runs, sixth fewest in the majors, and Cleveland 667, eighth fewest. Cleveland's offense ranked 24th of 30 in runs.
Now add cold rain and a wind gusting in from center field, which knocks down fly balls.
Tampa Bay's late-inning arms are fresh. Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly and closer Bryan Baker last pitched in Game 2 on Tuesday, and Tyler Wells and Steven Matz each threw two scoreless innings Thursday.
Cleveland's pitching is where this could go wrong. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski and Daniel Espino finished Game 3 and would be working a second straight day, while Joey Cantillo, Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi, the likeliest arms to cover bulk innings, have not started a game recently. Bibee had a 4.36 ERA this season. Martinez has his own questions: he has not pitched since Oct. 7, when he lasted 3 2/3 innings against New York, and he gave up six runs on 12 hits over 6 1/3 innings across his last two starts. Game 1 of this series also produced 10 runs. Still, at -110 (52.4% implied), we'll take the Under in this weather.
PICK #2: Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 (+120)
At +120, this needs to cash 45.5% of the time, and Cleveland has scored two runs or fewer in five of nine games against Tampa Bay this year. Three of those were regular-season shutouts, and Martinez started two of them: seven scoreless innings on three hits on April 28 and six scoreless on four hits on July 25. In Game 2 of this series the Guardians scored once.
Across the full regular season, Cleveland scored two or fewer in about 30% of its games, so this is a bet on the matchup. Against this staff it has happened more than half the time, and a lineup that finished 24th in runs now has to hit into a wind blowing in from center field. That wind makes a game-turning two-run homer like Halpin's harder to come by.
Martinez is the risk. He has not pitched in nine days and his last two starts were rough, so Tampa Bay may need its rested bullpen early. Cleveland also scored seven runs in Game 1 and three on Thursday.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
