Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, MLB ALCS Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/15)

Fact checked at 8:10 AM ET, Oct 15, 2026

Odds as of Oct 15, 7:29 AM ET

The ALCS is tied 1-1 and heads to Cleveland. The Guardians stole Game 1 at Tampa Bay 7-3, all seven runs coming from the sixth inning on, and the Rays answered 3-1 in Game 2 behind six scoreless innings from Freddy Peralta. Tampa Bay (98-64) had the better regular season, Cleveland (85-77) has the home field, and the market leans Cleveland at -133 with the Rays at +110. The total opened at 7 and has slipped to 6.5.

MLB pulled first pitch up from the evening to 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 15, at Progressive Field (TBS), with rain forecast for tonight. The afternoon itself looks fine: mostly sunny, 66 to 70 degrees and an east wind around 5 mph.

On the mound it's Gavin Williams, the American League strikeout leader with 248, against Griffin Jax, a reliever turned starter who is making his first postseason start. Both bullpens rested Wednesday. We see a low-scoring game where Williams piles up strikeouts and Jax, with Nick Martinez ready behind him, keeps a Cleveland lineup that ranked 24th in runs off the board. Both picks cash in that game.

Rays vs. Guardians Predictions

• Pick #1: Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+113)
• Pick #2: Griffin Jax Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-166)

PICK #1: Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+113)

Williams comes in hot: 24 strikeouts in 11 2/3 postseason innings. He fanned 11 in five innings in Game 2 of the Division Series, got one in a relief inning in Game 4, then struck out 12 in 5 2/3 innings in the Game 5 clincher. In the regular season he reached seven or more in 20 of 32 starts and averaged 7.75. His one look at Tampa Bay, on April 29, produced nine strikeouts over 7 2/3 innings and one unearned run. Cleveland named him the Game 3 starter on normal rest after a Tuesday bullpen session, and he said his arm feels good. This one is a day game, and his ERA was 2.42 in 13 day starts against 4.82 in 19 at night.

The Rays are the obstacle, and Williams knows it: "They don't strike out much. They're going to put the ball in play," he said. They struck out 1,145 times, the fewest in the majors, and Cleveland's staff got them only eight and six times in the first two games of this series. Williams fell short of seven in three of his last 10 starts, and his two Division Series starts lasted five and 5 2/3 innings, so the strikeouts have to come early. Knock his average down for the matchup and he still projects around seven. At +113, the book is giving him only a 46.9% chance, and that's too low.

PICK #2: Griffin Jax Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-166)

Tampa Bay won't ask Jax to go deep. Martinez, who started Game 3 of the Division Series, is available in relief, and the outs line for Jax is 11.5, about four innings. Fewer innings give Cleveland fewer chances to get to him.

Jax allowed one earned run or none in 16 of 23 starts (69.6%), and the -166 price needs 62.4%. That season rate is the starting point, and today's conditions push it up. He is pitching well now: one earned run in 18 innings over his last four starts, and his five most recent went 0, 0, 0, 1 and 6 earned runs, the six coming in his September 2 return from the injured list. Rays manager Kevin Cash said he has "done a tremendous job of transitioning into that starter routine" since late April. The opponent is weak: Cleveland finished 24th in runs and 27th in home runs and scored once in Game 2. And with Martinez ready, Cash can go to the bullpen before a rough inning gets away from Jax.

He can still get hit. Cleveland scored seven in Game 1 and put up nine twice against Chicago in the Division Series, and Jax allowed six earned runs in one start and seven in another this season. This is his first postseason start, on seven days' rest after a 32-pitch relief outing, and his September 26 start ended early when a line drive hit him in the lower back. A runner he leaves on base who later scores also goes on his line.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.