Rays vs. Brewers Prediction, MLB World Series Game 1 Odds & Best Bets (10/23)

Fact checked at 12:06 PM ET, Oct 23, 2026

Odds as of Oct 23, 12:02 PM ET

Milwaukee is chasing its first World Series title and opens at home with Jacob Misiorowski, who led the majors with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts over 174.2 innings. The Brewers went 7-1 through the National League bracket and finished with a four-game sweep of the Dodgers. Tampa Bay went 7-2 in the American League, beat Cleveland in six, and starts Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA) so Drew Rasmussen can pitch Game 2.

Neither starter has gone deep lately. Misiorowski hasn't finished the fifth inning in either playoff start, and Martinez has faced 16, 16 and 18 batters in his last three outings. Both managers have bullpens they trust. Milwaukee's relievers have a 1.33 ERA over 40 2/3 innings this postseason and haven't pitched since Oct 15, and Tampa Bay has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of its nine playoff games. Milwaukee is a -187 favorite with a total of 6.5. First pitch is 8:00 PM ET Friday at American Family Field, where the roof is expected to be closed.

Rays vs. Brewers Predictions

• Pick #1: Jacob Misiorowski Under 16.5 Outs (-115)
• Pick #2: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-167)

PICK #1: Jacob Misiorowski Under 16.5 Outs (-115)

Milwaukee has kept Misiorowski on a short leash since early September. He hasn't thrown more than 94 pitches in any of his last seven starts, and six of them ended at 16 outs or fewer: 12, 19, 15, 9, 16, then 12 and 13 in the playoffs. After the NLCS opener, Pat Murphy said his innings were "way over" anything he'd thrown before and that he was "bound to be a little bit tired."

Opponents shortened both playoff starts by making him work. San Diego fouled off 30 pitches in four innings and had him out of the game at 88 pitches; the Dodgers saw 94 pitches in 4 1/3 innings and fouled off half their swings. Misiorowski expects the Rays to do "pretty much the same thing," and they have the lineup for it, with a .326 on-base percentage that ranked fifth in the majors.

Murphy also has a week-rested bullpen that has carried his club all month, so there's little reason to stretch his starter once the count climbs. The -115 price implies a 53.5% chance, and we like the Under at that number.

The full season is the worry. Misiorowski got 17 or more outs in 18 of his 30 regular-season starts, including 18 on 94 pitches against these Rays on April 1, and he has had 11 full days off. A few quick innings early could take him into the sixth.

PICK #2: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-167)

Martinez gets his outs on contact. He struck out 109 batters in 31 regular-season starts, 15.1% of the hitters he faced, and Milwaukee won't push that rate up much: the Brewers struck out 22.3% of the time against right-handers, about the league average.

How long he stays in matters more. His last three outings ended after 16, 16 and 18 batters, and he has three or fewer strikeouts in five of his last six starts, including three in each playoff start. Kevin Cash is saving Rasmussen for Game 2, his staff has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of nine October games, and the betting market expects another short start, with Martinez's outs line at 13.5 and the Under favored. Give him 18 or 19 hitters at his season rate and the projection is about three strikeouts, with three or fewer coming up about two times in three. The -167 price needs 62.5%.

A longer leash would change that. He averaged about 23 batters a start in the regular season, finished with three or fewer strikeouts in only 14 of 31 starts, and struck out seven Yankees on Sept. 22. Some projections have him going six innings with four or five strikeouts, and if he's efficient early, Cash could let him see the lineup a third time.

Both picks need the same game: short starts on both sides, with the bullpens taking over early.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.