Fact checked at 9:19 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Purdue (3-6) visits Iowa (7-2) at 7:30 PM ET at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes are 17.5-point favorites and the total is 47.5. We expect Iowa to be in front for most of the night, and a Purdue team playing from behind throws to Asaad Waseem. Iowa doesn't pass much, but when Hank Brown drops back he looks for Tony Diaz, and Purdue's pass defense gives up 244.7 yards a game. That defense also just lost its coordinator: Purdue fired Kevin Kane after last week's 34-29 home loss to Maryland, and coach Barry Odom won't say who is calling it until after this game. So we're playing each team's leading receiver. Expect a cold, dry, calm night, in the high 30s at kickoff.
Purdue vs. Iowa Predictions
Pick #1Tony Diaz 40+ Receiving Yards−174
In every FBS game Brown has started, Diaz has cleared 40 yards. Across the whole season against FBS teams he's seven of eight: 84 against Northern Illinois, 95 against Iowa State, 46 at Michigan, 59 against Ohio State, 57 at Minnesota, 75 against Wisconsin and 43 at Northwestern. The miss was 23 at Washington, where Jeremy Hecklinski started and played the whole way. (He also had 22 against Northern Iowa, an FCS team.)
Diaz leads Iowa with 35 catches, 504 yards and 63 targets. Brown is back in rhythm, 36 of 45 for 348 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games, and Diaz scored in both. Purdue allows 244.7 passing yards a game, all of it under the coordinator who was just let go.
The -174 price works out to a 63.5% chance, which isn't cheap. What could beat it is volume. Iowa threw only 24 and 21 passes in its last two wins, and a big lead means more handoffs. The 43 at Northwestern came on two catches, so there wasn't much to spare. Brown is expected to start but hasn't been confirmed, and this pick depends on him.
Pick #2Asaad Waseem 40+ Receiving Yards−141
Waseem leads Purdue with 43 catches for 709 yards. Against FBS teams he has 40 or more in six of eight games: 65 against Wake Forest, 149 at UCLA, 98 at Illinois, 116 against Washington, 64 at Penn State and 57 against Maryland.
Both misses came in games that got out of hand. He had 19 in a 41-13 win over Minnesota, when Purdue ran 47 times and Ryan Browne threw only 24 passes, and 34 in a 49-10 loss to Notre Dame. We don't see Purdue running away from anybody at Kinnick, and in Purdue's recent losses Browne has thrown plenty: 41 attempts against Washington, 29 at Penn State, 38 against Maryland.
Iowa is a tough draw, though. The Hawkeyes allow 194.8 passing yards a game and average 3.33 sacks. Waseem has also been living on a few long catches (two against Maryland, three at Penn State), so one big gain is often most of his night. The Penn State game shows how it can still work: Purdue lost 31-17 and passed for just 142 yards, and Waseem had 64 of them. At -141 the implied probability is 58.5%. Browne is expected to start but hasn't been confirmed, and the pick depends on him.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
