Padres vs. Brewers Prediction, MLB NLDS Game 2 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 6:12 AM ET; Pick #2 price as of 7:33 AM ET

Game 1 came down to a roof cable. Ty France lifted a ninth-inning fly ball that clipped one of the cables above American Family Field and dropped into Jackson Chourio's glove for an out, and the Milwaukee Brewers (103-59) held on, 3-2, to lead the best-of-five National League Division Series 1-0. The Padres (91-71) now turn to Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA). Milwaukee counters with rookie Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP), who has never allowed more than three runs in any of his 23 career starts. Both starters are the clubs' announced choices. Neither lineup is posted yet.

Milwaukee is -143 and San Diego +121 in the consensus as of 6:12 AM ET, and the public is all over the underdog: 82% of the bets and 80% of the money are on the Padres. Where the Brewers opened depends on who you ask, anywhere from -131 to -152. The run line is Brewers -1.5 (+154) and the total is 7 (Over -115, Under -110). Milwaukee went 55-26 at home and ranked second in the majors in runs per game. San Diego went 40-41 on the road.

First pitch is 4:00 PM ET Sunday, Oct. 4, at American Family Field in Milwaukee, on FS1. The roof was closed for Game 1, and no call has been announced for today; outside, it should be sunny and about 66 degrees at first pitch. Game 3 is Tuesday in San Diego.

Padres vs. Brewers Predictions

• Pick #1: Brewers Moneyline (-143)
• Pick #2: Brice Turang Over 0.5 Hits (-181)

PICK #1: Brewers Moneyline (-143)

Over 162 games, these two clubs weren't close. The Brewers scored 832 runs (5.14 a game, second in the majors) and allowed 618 (3.81, fourth), a +214 run differential. San Diego scored 722 and allowed 681 (4.20 a game, ninth), good for +41.

The matchup with King suits Milwaukee, too. The Brewers led the majors in on-base percentage (.341), hit .258 as a team and, per the club site, ranked first in wRC+ against right-handers. King is a right-hander. Don't lean on the pitching gap, though. Henderson's 2.47 ERA covers 98 1/3 innings and King's 3.21 covers 185, a difference of under a run. This bet is on Milwaukee's lineup and a full season of run prevention.

Both bullpens are good. Milwaukee's 3.40 ERA led the National League and San Diego's 3.53 ranked third. Mason Miller did not pitch Saturday.

San Diego has real reasons for hope. King took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of the Wild Card opener and owns a 2.05 career postseason ERA, and the Padres made Jacob Misiorowski throw 88 pitches in four innings Saturday. Henderson has never pitched in the postseason, and his last start was Sept. 23. At -143 the Brewers carry a 58.8% implied probability. That's a fair price for the better team at home, not a steal, and most bettors are on the other side.

Want plus money? Brewers -1.5 at +154 pays more but needs a two-run win. Keep in mind this pick and the Turang pick need the same thing: Milwaukee's lineup getting to King.

PICK #2: Brice Turang Over 0.5 Hits (-181)

The platoon split is the case. Turang hit .291 with a .391 on-base percentage against right-handers this season (118 hits in 406 at-bats), compared with .216 against lefties, and King throws right-handed.

He also bats near the top of a lineup that reaches base more than any in the majors. His season line was .268/.366 (156 hits in 582 at-bats over 151 games), and he had a hit in 100 of the 149 games where he batted at least three times. September was even better: .361 with a .475 on-base percentage. He went 1, 3, 1 and 1 in hits from Sept. 24 through Sept. 27, then 0-for-3 with a walk Saturday against a left-hander, batting second. That's 6 hits in his last 20 at-bats. With a righty on the mound, the expected order is Garrett Mitchell, Chourio and then Turang, with William Contreras and Jake Bauers behind him.

You pay for all of that. -181 implies 64.4%, and King has held hitters to a .221 average this season, .219 against left-handers. Lineups aren't out. If Turang isn't in the order, skip it. If the price moves to -200 or shorter once the lineup posts, pass.

Bauers Over 0.5 Hits at -146 is the cheaper alternative. He has a hit in four of his last five starts. A strong King start, though, would hurt this and the Brewers moneyline together.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.