Fact checked at 9:18 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Boise State (8-1, 5-0 Pac-12) has won eight straight and hosts Oregon State (5-4, 3-2) at 6:00 PM ET at Albertsons Stadium. The Beavers come in without Braden Atkinson, who entered the week leading the nation with 3,169 passing yards. He hurt his throwing hand in the third quarter of the 42-21 home loss to Texas State and is out on the latest Pac-12 availability report. Maalik Murphy is expected to start, with Brady Jones also a possibility, though no starter has been confirmed. Boise State's Maddux Madsen missed last week's 64-38 win at Colorado State with a knee injury and is questionable; Max Cutforth starts if he can't go. We expect Boise State to win this on the ground, running through a defense that hasn't stopped the run while an Oregon State offense without its quarterback falls behind. The Broncos are 16-point favorites, and the total is 63.5.
Oregon State vs. Boise State Predictions
Pick #1Boise State -16−110
Take Atkinson away and there isn't much left of this offense. Oregon State throws for 370.4 yards a game and runs for 128.0, and he threw at least 34 passes in each of the last five games. Even with him, the Beavers lost the last two by 16 and 21, and Texas State held them to 80 rushing yards on 26 carries. Murphy, a senior who started for Oregon State last season, went 5 of 7 for 75 yards with an interception in relief that day. The same report lists eight Beavers out in all, among them Jacob Anderson, an offensive lineman with multiple starts at left tackle, outside linebacker Will Haverland and three defensive backs.
Boise State wins this up front. The Broncos run for 237.1 yards a game and put up 274, 258 and 352 rushing yards in three of their last four. Oregon State allows 173.2 on the ground, and Texas State just ran 62 times for 386 yards against it. That works with either Boise State quarterback. Coach Spencer Danielson has said, "If he's healthy, he's going to be our starting quarterback," and Cutforth went 16 of 19 for 317 yards and four touchdowns in his start at Colorado State.
Boise State has won by 17 or more in five of its eight games against FBS teams, and -110 implies 52.4%. The Broncos' defense is the risk: it gave up 45 points to Texas State and 38 to Colorado State, and the Broncos beat Fresno State and Texas State, the two teams that just beat Oregon State, by one score each. An average of public projections has Boise State by about 13, but those ratings were built on a season of Atkinson at quarterback. The case assumes he stays out, as the latest report says.
Pick #2Dylan Riley 120+ Rushing Yards−146
If the Broncos win on the ground, most of those yards are Riley's. He has 1,241 rushing yards on 184 carries this season and reached 120 in five of eight games against FBS teams: 206 against Memphis, 138 at Western Michigan, 150 at Fresno State, 128 at Washington State and 192 on 19 carries at Colorado State last week. He also ran for 198 against South Dakota, an FCS team.
He fell short with 50 at Oregon in the opener, 93 against Utah State and 86 on 25 carries against Texas State. At -146 the price implies 59.3%, close to his FBS rate, so this bet is about the opponent. Oregon State allows 173.2 rushing yards a game and has given up 168 or more in four of its last five, topped by the 386 to Texas State. Sire Gaines, the No. 2 back, is questionable, and Riley carried 25 and 19 times in the last two games with Gaines absent from the box score.
What could hurt this one is a night like the Texas State game, when 25 carries got him only 86 yards. He has to play for the bet to stand.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
