Fact checked at 9:18 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Minnesota (5-4, 3-3 in Big Ten play) and Penn State (5-4, 2-4) have the same record and are heading in opposite directions. Penn State lost four straight before its bye, then beat Purdue 31-17 and won 28-25 at Washington with the running game doing the heavy lifting. Minnesota has dropped two in a row, 23-16 in overtime at Indiana and 34-20 at home to UCLA, and it has scored 16.4 points a game over its last five.
Penn State is an 11.5-point favorite, with the total at 42.5.
Minnesota's week has been rough. The latest conference availability report lists its top two defensive tackles, Riley Sunram and Theorin Randle, as out, and cornerback John Nestor as questionable. Then the nationwide ground stop grounded the team's charter in Minneapolis. A school spokesperson said the Gophers "were unable to travel to Penn State" as planned, and the team was scheduled to fly in on game day. Rocco Becht is expected to start at quarterback for Penn State and Drake Lindsey for Minnesota.
We think Penn State's offense keeps playing the way it has since the bye: Carson Hansen and the run game finish drives against a thin Minnesota front, and Becht gets past a modest passing number. Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET at Beaver Stadium in University Park.
Minnesota vs. Penn State Predictions
Pick #1Carson Hansen Anytime Touchdown−115
Hansen has run for a touchdown in five straight games and in six of Penn State's nine this season. At -115, the price implies only a 53.5% chance. The streak has held up in wins and losses, with scores from 8, 3, 2, 1 and 12 yards out.
His workload has grown along with it. After four carries at Northwestern, he has had 14, 15, 17 and 14 over the last four games. Since the bye he has 96 yards against Purdue and 119 on 14 carries at Washington, his first 100-yard game at Penn State. The whole ground game has woken up. Penn State ran for 269 yards on 51 attempts against Purdue and 174 on 37 at Washington, after failing to reach 70 in any of the three games before the bye. Coach Matt Campbell said this week the offense has played in the rhythm it wants over "the last 8-to-10 quarters," with the running game as the foundation.
That's a bad matchup for Minnesota's front. Sunram and Randle are listed out, and so is a third interior lineman, Jaylin Hicks. The Gophers' last five opponents ran for 79, 305, 90, 144 and 163 yards.
The main risk to this pick is Hansen's own backfield. Cam Wallace got 22 carries to Hansen's 17 against Purdue and has scored in both games since the bye. Becht also ran one in against Purdue, so not every short score goes to Hansen. Minnesota also kept Iowa and Indiana out of the end zone on the ground.
Pick #2Rocco Becht 180+ Passing Yards−182
At -182 (a 64.5% break-even), a hot two weeks wouldn't be enough to justify this price. The full season is. Becht has thrown for 180 or more in seven of nine games. One miss was a 114-yard day in the loss to Wisconsin. The other was 175 against Purdue, with Chase Sowell and Koby Howard both out and Penn State running 51 times.
Sowell is back. In his return at Washington he caught four passes for 125 yards and a touchdown, and Penn State's notes have him averaging 101.8 receiving yards a game in Big Ten play. Becht threw only 27 times in that game and still finished with 240. Minnesota's secondary gave up 275 passing yards at Indiana and 303 to UCLA in its last two games, with UCLA getting there on just eight completions. Nestor, its top cornerback, is questionable.
Volume is the weak spot. Becht attempted 24 and 27 passes in the two wins since the bye, after 41, 32 and 44 in the three losses before it. An 11.5-point favorite that gets ahead may not need to throw late. Earlier in this stretch Minnesota held Michigan, Purdue and Iowa to 101, 159 and 198 passing yards. Becht is the expected starter, not a confirmed one, and the case assumes Sowell plays.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
