Fact checked at 9:11 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Michigan (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten) visits Oregon (6-3, 4-2) at 3:30 PM ET at Autzen Stadium in Eugene as a 10.5-point underdog, with the total at 38.5. Both offenses have new play-callers. Oregon fired its offensive coordinator after a 21-10 loss at Illinois, handed the job to Jay Johnson and has put up 34 against Northwestern and 41 at Ohio State since. Michigan fired coordinator Jason Beck after last week's 15-6 home loss to Michigan State, so offensive line coach Jim Harding calls plays for the first time today. Tommy Carr is expected to start at quarterback, and Bryce Underwood is likely to play too. The way we see it, Michigan's defense, which hasn't allowed more than 21 points all season, keeps Oregon from pulling away, and whatever Oregon gets through the air goes to Dakorien Moore, because this defense takes away almost everyone else.
Michigan vs. Oregon Predictions
Pick #1Michigan +10.5−110
Michigan hasn't lost by more than nine all season. It lost by 1 to Iowa, 6 at Minnesota, 7 to Indiana in overtime and 9 to Michigan State, and no opponent has scored more than 21 on a defense that allows 16.2 points a game. Oregon, meanwhile, hasn't beaten an FBS team at home by more than 8: Boise State by 7, Nebraska by 3 and Northwestern by 8, plus a loss to UCLA. Both of its wins by more than 10.5 over FBS teams came on the road, at USC and at Ohio State.
At -110 the price implies 52.4%. The bigger spread bets lean Michigan's way: it has 45% of the money from only 35% of the bets. Oregon will also be without outside linebacker Teitum Tuioti, who hurt his knee at Ohio State; Dan Lanning said he is done for the year.
Michigan's offense is what could sink this. It scored 6 points in two of its last three games, turned the ball over four times against Michigan State and now has an interim play-caller behind a short-handed line. The latest Big Ten availability report has right tackle Andrew Sprague and lineman Ace Hamilton out, tackle Blake Frazier doubtful and guard Brady Norton questionable, with defensive ends John Henry Daley and Dom Nichols and safety Rod Moore also questionable. The average public projection makes Oregon about a 14-point winner, so we're siding with how these teams have actually played over that number. If Michigan's quarterbacks hand Oregon short fields, it loses.
Pick #2Dakorien Moore 50+ Receiving Yards−158
Dylan Raiola has played three full games at quarterback, and Moore led Oregon in receiving in each: 9 catches for 70 yards at Illinois, 7 for 128 against Northwestern and 7 for 56 at Ohio State. He has led Oregon in receiving yards in all five games since starter Dante Moore's season-ending injury.
Over the whole season it's closer. Moore has 50 or more in 5 of Oregon's 8 games against FBS teams (93, 45, 42, 77, 36, 70, 128 and 56), and -158 implies 61.2%. What changed is his role. In Oregon's first three FBS games he caught three to six passes; with Raiola as the full-time starter he has caught at least seven every time.
Michigan allows 154.8 passing yards a game, but it hasn't been able to take away an offense's lead receiver. In its last five games the opponent's leading receiver had 70, 151, 32, 80 and 92 yards, while no second receiver topped 36. Michigan State's top receiver got his 92 in that 15-6 game, so a close, low-scoring game doesn't kill this pick.
The 32 belonged to Indiana's top receiver on a day the Hoosiers threw only 18 passes, and Moore's 36 came the night Oregon threw for 113 as a team against Nebraska. Raiola is expected to start but isn't confirmed, and the pick depends on him. The forecast is dry and mild, with a south wind around 10 mph that could gust into the 20s, enough to bother a few deep throws.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
