Fact checked at 7:28 AM ET, Nov 12, 2026Odds as of 6:21 AM ET, Nov 12, 2026
Memphis (7-2, 4-1 American) visits South Florida (6-3, 2-3) at 8:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa with an offense that gains 513.3 yards a game, fifth in the country, and scores 37.6 points. The betting line doesn't expect that many tonight. The Tigers are 3.5-point favorites with a total of 50.5, which puts Memphis at about 27 points, and eight published score predictions average 25.9 for the Tigers, with none past 28. The reason is a Bulls defense that allows 15.1 points a game, tied for 10th in the country. The spread money is also on the Bulls: 80% of it is on South Florida +3.5, against 56% of the bets. South Florida lost 20-17 at East Carolina last week and hasn't named a quarterback. Michael Van Buren Jr. missed that game with an injury and Luke Kromenhoek started. So our bets are on a smaller version of Memphis's usual night: Jaylin Carter gets his carries, and one of about three touchdowns goes to the receiver who has caught six in his last five games.
Memphis vs. South Florida Predictions
Pick #1Jaylin Carter 70+ Rushing Yards−177
Carter has run for at least 70 yards in seven of Memphis's eight games against FBS teams. The miss was 53 yards on 16 carries against East Carolina. (He also had 62 on 12 carries in a blowout of UT Martin, an FCS team.) He has 929 yards and 10 touchdowns on 151 carries this season.
He is also getting the ball more. His carries in the last four games were 19, 23, 16 and 23, and the 23 against Army in Memphis's last game tied his career high. The first 23 came at Tulane, where Memphis turned the ball over six times and lost 31-17. He ran for 135 anyway, which matters on a night that is supposed to be close.
South Florida's run defense is the obstacle: it allows 129.3 yards a game and 3.6 a carry. That average hides a split. Four of the Bulls' eight FBS opponents ran for at least 138 yards: Army 219, Temple 182, UTSA 277 and East Carolina 138. The Bulls lost to three of them. The other four (FIU, Bowling Green, Kent State and UAB) combined for 245. East Carolina's Ashton Gray ran for 101 last week. Memphis averages 222.8 on the ground and hasn't been held under 135.
The price is the hard part: -177 has an implied probability of 63.9%. Still, 20 carries at even 3.6 yards apiece is 72. The bet is in trouble if Memphis falls behind and stops handing off, as it did in the loss at Boise State, where Carter had nine carries and needed an 80-yard run to reach 95. Manny Covey is the other threat. He took 11 carries for 79 yards against East Carolina, the game Carter was held to 53.
Pick #2Jemyri Davis Anytime Touchdown+275
Davis leads Memphis with six touchdown catches, and every one of them has come in the last five games: one at Charlotte, one at Tulane, two against East Carolina and two against Army. He has scored in four of those five.
We wouldn't bet a streak by itself. What has changed is his role. Davis caught eight passes in his first four games. He has 15 catches for 255 yards in his last three, including a career-high seven against East Carolina. Four of the six touchdowns covered 20 yards or less (4, 6, 15 and 20), so Marcus Stokes is finding him near the goal line. Stokes has started every game and is expected to start again. Over those five games, six of Memphis's 27 touchdowns went to Davis.
The case against starts with South Florida's defense. The Bulls have allowed 12 touchdowns in eight games against FBS teams, and Memphis has other places to go: tight end Hunter Tipton has five touchdown catches and Carter has 10 rushing scores. Davis has also played in only seven of the nine games. If South Florida holds the Tigers to field goals, this loses. But a 26- or 27-point night probably means three Memphis touchdowns, and the +275 price only asks Davis to score about one time in four. The exact figure is 26.7%.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
