Louisiana vs. ULM Prediction, CFB Week 11 Odds & Best Bets (11/12)

Garner has a rushing touchdown in six straight games, and the backfield around him keeps getting smaller. Louisiana started the season rotating four running backs. Darrell Smith was lost for the year earlier this season. Anthony Reagan hurt his knee last week and is listed as out for the season on the Sun Belt's availability report. That leaves Garner, a redshirt freshman, and Steven Blanco, with a true freshman behind them. Garner carried four to six times in each of the first four games. He has had 10 carries in two of the last three, and last week he turned 10 into 136 yards against South Alabama, 65 of them on one touchdown run.

ULM is a good opponent for him. In nine games, one against an FCS opponent, the Warhawks have allowed 5.1 yards a carry and 18 rushing touchdowns, with at least one in each of the last five. Two games ago Southern Miss scored on runs of 33, 21 and 32 yards. Garner's own touchdown runs have covered 7, 13, 20, 37, 42 and 65 yards, and he averages 7.2 yards a carry. He has scored in six of Louisiana's eight games against FBS teams, and +105 prices him at 48.8%.

The short touchdowns go to other people, and that's the hole in this bet. Quarterback Lunch Winfield has 10 rushing touchdowns, six of them from inside the 10, and all four of Blanco's rushing scores came from the 1 or the 2. Garner has none shorter than 7 yards. ULM's run defense has also been better in its two wins: Troy averaged 3.3 yards a carry and Arkansas State ran for 120 yards. So Garner probably has to break one. He averages 7.2 a carry and is getting about twice the carries he got early in the season, and at plus money that's enough for us.

Chaney has not caught more than three passes in a game this season. He has still reached 25 receiving yards in all six games he has played against FBS teams: 44 at Charlotte, 27 against Arkansas State, 32 at Louisiana Tech, 45 against Troy, 35 at Southern Miss and 46 against South Alabama. His one miss was the opener against Lamar, an FCS team, when he had 21. He sat out two games early in the season and still leads Louisiana with 19 catches.

He usually gets there on one long catch. Four of those six games included a reception of 31 yards or more, and ULM has allowed a completion of at least 30 yards in four of its last five games. The Warhawks' eight FBS opponents have averaged 12.8 yards per completion. Pass volume hasn't mattered much. Louisiana threw 14 passes against South Alabama and Chaney had 46 yards on two catches.

The -185 price is a 64.9% break-even, and that is a lot to lay on two or three catches. In the two games without a long catch he finished with 27 and 35. Against Troy he got past the number only on a 31-yard catch from the backup quarterback late in a blowout. Every other catch in those six games came from Winfield, who is not on the availability report and is expected to start. Winfield also ran 19 times five days ago. If he can't finish, Louisiana turns to a backup who has thrown 10 passes all season. With Winfield in the game, Chaney needs one shot downfield against a defense that has been giving one up most weeks.