Fact checked at 9:20 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Louisville (6-3, 5-2 ACC) visits North Carolina (5-4, 2-3 ACC) at 7:00 PM ET at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total at 57.5. The Cardinals have won four straight, the last of them 44-17 at Georgia Tech, and have scored at least 27 points in all nine games. North Carolina is one win from bowl eligibility, but it lost its last two home games, 38-35 to Miami and 31-30 in overtime to Syracuse. Louisville should get its yards on the ground. It averages 6.3 yards per carry, best in the FBS, and every FBS opponent North Carolina has played has run for at least 100 yards against it. So both picks are Louisville runners: the second running back and the quarterback.
Louisville vs. North Carolina Predictions
Pick #1Keyjuan Brown 50+ Rushing Yards−139
Brown is Louisville's second back, and he has still reached 50 rushing yards in six of his seven games against FBS teams: 56 against Ole Miss, 163 against SMU, 88 at NC State, 50 at Syracuse, 50 against Stanford and 54 at Georgia Tech. The one miss was 48 yards on 12 carries against Wake Forest. He had one carry against Villanova, an FCS team, and sat out the Florida State game after being ruled out on that day's availability report.
He doesn't need a big workload to get there, because Louisville runs so well. The Cardinals average 228.0 rushing yards a game, and Brown got his 50 against Stanford on seven carries. North Carolina gives up 3.98 yards per carry, 67th nationally. At -139 the implied probability is 58.2%, and six of seven sits well above that.
Those two games at exactly 50 do bother us a little. A yard short in both and this is 4 of 7. He also shares the ball with Isaac Brown, the lead back, who is probable on the latest availability report, and nothing published says how the carries will be split. Louisville is without two offensive linemen as well: tackle Bryten Close and Anwar O'neal are listed out.
Pick #2Lincoln Kienholz 36+ Rushing Yards−117
Kienholz is the other half of Louisville's ground game. He has run for 36 or more yards in six of his eight FBS games: 69 against Ole Miss, 42 against SMU, 40 against Florida State, 53 at Syracuse, 62 against Stanford and 81 at Georgia Tech. He has carried nine or 10 times in each of the last four games, and his 11 rushing touchdowns lead the team.
The two misses each come with an explanation. Against Wake Forest he was sacked four times and finished at minus-19, since college stats count sacks as rushing yards. At NC State he was listed questionable that week and ran seven times for 24 yards. North Carolina coach Bill Belichick described the problem this week: "(Kienholz's) runs, I'd say, are based more on speed," he said. "They force you to defend sideline to sideline." The -117 price implies 53.9%, and that's a fair bit below how often he has cleared this number.
Sacks are what could sink it. North Carolina has 18 in nine games, and defensive lineman Xavier Lewis has seven of them; a few drops behind the line can wipe out a good night of running. Kienholz is the expected starter, though the school hasn't named one, and he isn't on the availability report. One more point for both picks: at Syracuse, when Louisville ran for only 115 yards as a team, Brown still had 50 and Kienholz 53.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
