Fact checked at 5:45 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 4:54 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
Tampa Bay (11-4-2) is in Buffalo (8-6-3) for a 7:00 PM ET start at KeyBank Center, favored on the road. The total is 6.5, and the public is on both: 94% of the bets and 97% of the money on the total are on the Over, and 96% of the moneyline money is on Tampa Bay.
This looks like a night when both teams score, and both of our picks are on the players who set the goals up. Tampa Bay scores 3.71 a game, sixth in the league, but its road games have been open. The Lightning have given up 36 goals in their nine road games, and seven of the nine finished with at least seven goals. Neither team kills penalties well: Tampa Bay is at 72.9% and Buffalo at 71.2%, both in the league's bottom 10. Andrei Vasilevskiy (.883 save percentage) and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.878) are the expected starters, though neither is confirmed and both teams play again tomorrow. If a backup gets the net, it's Dennis Hildeby (.880) or Colten Ellis (.884), so none of the four goalies is above .884. Tampa Bay will be without Brayden Point, who left its last game in the first period and is on injured reserve.
Lightning vs. Sabres Predictions
Pick #1Zach Benson Over 0.5 Assists+115
Benson has 13 assists in 17 games, the most on the Sabres, and at least one in 10 of them. That's 58.8% against a +115 price that needs only 46.5%. He's playing 20:14 a night on a line with Noah Ostlund and Jack Quinn, who has nine goals, and he's on the first power-play unit with Tage Thompson, Buffalo's leading scorer. The line was together at the last practice.
It's a bigger job than he had a year ago. Last season he averaged under 16 minutes and had an assist in 24 of 65 games, so the case rests on 17 games in the new role, and that isn't many.
Tampa Bay's road form is why we like it tonight. The Lightning have allowed four goals a game away from home and at least three in eight of their nine road games. Benson doesn't need a power play to cash, which is just as well: Buffalo's converts 14.3% and ranks 30th in the league, and only three of his 13 assists have come with the man advantage.
Home ice is the problem. The Sabres have scored one goal or none in five of their nine home games, and Benson has an assist in seven of eight road games but just three of nine in Buffalo. He had six assists in the four games before the last one, a 4-1 home loss to Vegas, where he was held off the scoresheet.
Pick #2Charle-Edouard D'Astous Over 0.5 Assists+145
Tampa Bay runs two defensemen on its top power play, D'Astous and John Carlson, with Nikita Kucherov (17 assists) and Jake Guentzel (10 goals) on the unit. Over his last nine games D'Astous has averaged more than four and a half minutes of power-play time, up from about a minute and a half before that, and he has an assist in six of the nine. Five of his eight assists this season have come on the power play.
That unit just lost its man in the middle. Point had 16 points in 17 games, and in the game he left Tampa Bay went 0-for-4 on the power play while D'Astous played five minutes of it without an assist. Sam O'Reilly, a 20-year-old called up this week who hasn't played an NHL game, took Point's spot at the last practice. D'Astous, Carlson, Kucherov and Guentzel were all still on the top unit.
At +145 the price implies 40.8%, closer to his full-season record (an assist in seven of 16 games) than to his last nine. Last season he played under a minute a game on the power play and had an assist in 18 of 70 games, so this is a bet on the new role, and nine games isn't much to go on.
Buffalo should help. The Sabres kill 71.2% of their penalties and allow 3.29 goals a game.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
