Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction, MLB ALDS Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/7)

Fact checked at 7:55 AM ET, Oct 7, 2026

Odds as of Oct 7, 7:06 AM ET

The White Sox are one win from the ALCS. They won both games in Cleveland, 3-0 on Saturday and 4-3 on Monday, to lead the best-of-five ALDS 2-0, and Game 3 moves to Chicago with the Guardians facing elimination. Cleveland's bats have been the story so far: three runs in two games, and 7-for-61 as a team.

Neither club is using a traditional starter. Cleveland opens with right-hander Daniel Espino, who opened three games during the season, and manager Stephen Vogt hasn't said who follows him. The candidates are Joey Cantillo, Tanner Bibee and Foster Griffin, and two of those three throw left-handed. Cantillo came in behind Espino in each of his last three regular-season outings, and one projected lineup lists Griffin as Cleveland's primary pitcher. Chicago counters with lefty Sean Newcomb, who opened six games this year and is expected to go short before an all-hands bullpen takes over.

The market has hardly budged. The White Sox opened -125 and sit at -120 on the consensus moneyline, with Cleveland at -100. Chicago +1.5 is -200, Cleveland -1.5 is +166, and the total has been 8 from the start (Over -109, Under -110).

First pitch is Wednesday at 4:00 PM ET at Rate Field in Chicago, on TBS and truTV. Lineups aren't out yet. Our angle is the White Sox side of that pitching plan: once Espino's inning is over, Cleveland's most likely path goes through a left-hander, and that's where Chase Meidroth has done his damage all year.

Guardians vs. White Sox Predictions

• Pick #1: Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+101)

PICK #1: Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+101)

Against left-handers this season, Meidroth hit .350 with a .431 on-base percentage and a .592 slugging percentage over 183 plate appearances. Against righties he was a different hitter: .247, .318 and .347. Espino is a right-hander, but he's likely to face the top of the order once and hand the ball off. Cantillo and Griffin are both lefties. Bibee is the one bulk option who would leave Meidroth in his weaker split.

The bat is warm, too. He has gone over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs in four of his last five starts (3, 0, 6, 4 and 2), with two hits in each of those four games. That includes two singles and an RBI from the eighth spot in Monday's Game 2 win. His regular season ended at 156 hits, 90 runs and 63 RBIs in 154 games, which works out to about two a game in this market, and he hit .304 with a .519 slugging percentage over the final month. At +101 the price implies 49.8%. For a hitter who averaged two all year and should see his better split for a good part of the afternoon, that's a fair price.

There are real ways this loses. The zero in his last five came in Game 1, when he led off against lefty Parker Messick and went 0-for-4. Cantillo was very good in the piggyback role in September: 15 scoreless innings behind Espino over those three outings, five hits allowed and 17 strikeouts. He also hasn't pitched in a game since Sep 24. If Vogt goes to Bibee for the bulk, Meidroth spends most of the day facing a righty. And his spot in the order keeps moving, from leadoff in Game 1 to eighth in Game 2, with projections now putting him fifth or sixth. If he isn't in the lineup, skip it.

His hits Over 0.5 sits at -220, a 68.8% implied price. Too steep to be the better way in.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.