Guardians vs. Rays Prediction, MLB ALCS Game 2 Odds & Best Bets (10/13)

Fact checked at 5:40 AM ET, Oct 13, 2026

Odds as of Oct 13, 5:19 AM ET

The Rays led Game 1 of the ALCS 2-0 early on Monday and lost 7-3, with Cleveland scoring all seven of its runs from the sixth inning on. Five Guardians relievers held Tampa Bay to one run on two hits over the last five innings. Game 2 is Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET at Tropicana Field on TBS and truTV, and the Rays (98-64) would rather not fly to Cleveland (85-77) down 0-2.

Freddy Peralta gets the ball for Tampa Bay. The Rays got the right-hander from the Mets at the trade deadline, and he has a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts for them, with one earned run or none in each of his last seven outings, Division Series included. Cleveland goes with rookie left-hander Parker Messick, who had a 2.56 ERA in the regular season but didn't get through five innings in either of his Division Series starts.

Tampa Bay is -140 (Cleveland +115) after opening at -135 on Monday night, and the total is 6.5.

We think Peralta decides this one. Cleveland finished 24th in runs and 26th in OPS, scored eight runs in six regular-season games against Tampa Bay, and managed three runs in three games at the Trop in July. We're backing Peralta to work into the fifth inning and hold the Guardians to one earned run or fewer while he's in. Both bets ride on the same pitcher, so a rough night from him hurts both.

Guardians vs. Rays Predictions

• Pick #1: Freddy Peralta Over 13.5 Outs (-124)
• Pick #2: Freddy Peralta Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-136)

PICK #1: Freddy Peralta Over 13.5 Outs (-124)

Fourteen outs, or four and two-thirds innings, is a low bar for Peralta. He cleared it in 27 of 32 regular-season starts and in nine of 10 after the trade, and his last five regular-season starts went 18, 18, 15, 17 and 16 outs. Tampa Bay won nine of the 11 games he started for them.

His only postseason start, Game 2 of the Division Series against the Yankees in this building, ended at exactly 14 outs on 66 pitches with one run allowed. His fastball averaged 96.8 mph that night, 2.5 mph above his season mark, and he was disappointed not to finish five innings. No pitch limit has been announced, though Kevin Cash has said the Rays will reassess their pitching staff after seeing how deep Peralta goes in Game 2.

At -124 the break-even is 55.4%, and the way this loses is a quick hook. The Rays' bullpen came out of Game 1 in decent shape (only Cole Sulser threw more than nine pitches in relief), and Wednesday is an off day. Cleveland also struck out the fifth-fewest times in baseball this season, so Peralta will have to work for his outs. The bet assumes he starts as announced.

PICK #2: Freddy Peralta Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-136)

Seven straight starts with one earned run or none, and a 0.93 ERA since Aug. 26. Seven of Peralta's 11 Tampa Bay starts ended with him at one or fewer, and eight of the 11 at two or fewer.

Cleveland is a good matchup for that run. The Guardians were 24th in runs (678) and 26th in OPS (.696) in the regular season, and in the July series at the Trop they scored 3, 0 and 0.

This is the thinner of the two bets. -136 works out to 57.6%, and over the full season, Mets starts included, Peralta held teams to one earned run or fewer in only 14 of 32 starts. Cleveland also had 14 hits in Game 1, eight of them off Drew Rasmussen, who was charged with two earned runs in six innings. An early exit doesn't sink this one, though: if Cash lifts him in the fifth, the Under only needs Peralta to leave having been charged with one run or none.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.