Guardians vs. Rays Prediction, MLB ALCS Game 1 Odds & Best Bets (10/12)

Fact checked at 8:52 AM ET, Oct 12, 2026

Odds as of Oct 12, 8:11 AM ET

The American League's top two seeds open the ALCS at Tropicana Field on Monday at 8:00 PM ET on TBS and truTV, and they arrive in very different shape. Tampa Bay (98-64) swept the Yankees and hasn't played since clinching on Oct. 7. Cleveland (85-77) needed all five games to get past the White Sox, finished on Saturday and flew to St. Petersburg on Sunday.

That gap shows up on the mound. Drew Rasmussen starts for the Rays on full rest and then some; his last outing was eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against the Yankees on Oct. 3. Gavin Williams (94 pitches Saturday) and Parker Messick (65 pitches Oct. 8) aren't expected until Games 3 and 2, so the Guardians turn to Foster Griffin, who had a 5.19 ERA in nine starts after joining Cleveland and hasn't started since Sept. 23. Rasmussen also gets a soft lineup. Cleveland finished 24th in runs, 26th in OPS and struck out the fifth-most times in baseball, and the Rays took the season series 5-1 while outscoring the Guardians 20-8.

Tampa Bay is -170 (Cleveland +140) after opening at -165, the total sits at 6.5 (Over -125, Under +104), and 81% of the bets on the total are on the Under.

We're backing Rasmussen to work deep and keep Cleveland quiet, and both picks ride on that one outcome: one on his length, one on the runs he gives up. A rough night from him sinks both.

Guardians vs. Rays Predictions

• Pick #1: Drew Rasmussen Over 17.5 Outs (-113)
• Pick #2: Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-118)

PICK #1: Drew Rasmussen Over 17.5 Outs (-113)

Rasmussen got through six innings in 18 of his 30 starts, and in four of his last five: 20 outs against the Yankees on Sept. 22, then 15 against the Athletics, 21 against the Astros, 21 against the Rangers and 18 against the Padres. He recorded 24 outs on 101 pitches in the Division Series opener. His season line backs it up (2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .199 opponent average over 172 innings), and he went five innings against Cleveland on April 29 and seven scoreless on July 26.

A 60% clip against a -113 price, which works out to 53.1%, leaves a cushion of about seven points. Kevin Cash confirmed Rasmussen as his starter, and no pitch or inning limit has been reported.

What beats this bet is a quick hook. Rasmussen left before 18 outs in 12 of his starts, he's had eight days off, and Cash has a bullpen that hasn't pitched in a game since Oct. 7. If the Rays change starters, pass.

PICK #2: Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-118)

Cleveland's lineup leans left-handed and led the majors in plate appearances with the platoon advantage. That doesn't scare us here. Lefties hit .205 with a .568 OPS off Rasmussen this year and struck out 111 times. The Guardians as a team hit .239 (24th) and slugged .380 (27th), and Rasmussen owns a 2.73 career ERA in eight meetings with them.

He held opponents to one earned run or none in 17 of 30 regular-season starts, four of his last five among them. Count the Yankees gem and it's 18 of 31, roughly 58%. The -118 price implies 54.1%, so this is a smaller edge than the outs Over, but it points the same way.

Two earned runs is all it takes to lose, and he allowed that many or more 13 times. Cleveland's lineup isn't posted yet either: one projection has Angel Martinez, another has Petey Halpin.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.