Fact checked at 9:18 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Kentucky (7-2, 5-2 SEC), No. 11 in the College Football Playoff rankings, hosts Florida (5-4, 3-4) at 6:15 PM ET at Kroger Field in Lexington as a 3-point favorite, with the total at 52.5. The Wildcats are coming off a 34-6 loss at Tennessee that ended a six-game winning streak. Florida has lost four of its last five, the latest 23-7 to Oklahoma, and is going back to Aaron Philo at quarterback, according to multiple reports; the school hasn't announced it. The Gators landed in Lexington before the nationwide flight ground stop, and the game is on as scheduled. We don't need to pick a winner here. Both offenses run their passing game through one receiver, both secondaries give up yards, and each of those receivers has a low number to clear: Kenny Darby for Kentucky, Bailey Stockton for Florida.
Florida vs. Kentucky Predictions
Pick #1Kenny Darby 50+ Receiving Yards−167
Darby's role has grown over Kentucky's last five games, and tonight it should grow again. Receiver Nic Anderson is listed out on the latest SEC availability report. The one game Anderson missed, against Vanderbilt, Darby caught four passes for 71 yards.
Over Kentucky's last five games he has 50 or more in four: 96 at South Carolina, 79 against LSU, 35 at Oklahoma, 71 against Vanderbilt and 69 at Tennessee, with 32 catches in those five. Over the full season it's six of nine, or five of eight against FBS teams, and -167 implies 62.5%. The early-season games are why the full record looks thinner: he caught two to five passes a game then, before the true freshman became the target he is now. He's tied for the team lead with 45 catches, leads Kentucky with 576 receiving yards and is six catches from the program's true-freshman record. Even in the 34-6 loss at Tennessee he caught seven for 69.
Florida is thin in the secondary. Starting safety Bryce Thornton and cornerback Dijon Johnson are both listed out, and the Gators allow 232.6 passing yards a game. Kenny Minchey has thrown every Kentucky pass over the last five games and isn't on the report.
The miss shows how this loses. At Oklahoma, Kentucky threw for 158 yards, won 21-13, and Darby's five catches went for 35. A Kentucky lead that turns into handoffs would look like that.
Pick #2Bailey Stockton 25+ Receiving Yards−199
At this price we need more than a hit rate, and his role gives us that. Receiver Vernell Brown III was hurt in the Ole Miss game and is still listed out. Since then Stockton has been the slot receiver Florida leans on, with 23 catches in five games and 25 or more yards in four of them: 25 at Missouri, 127 against South Carolina, 31 at Texas, 76 against Georgia in Atlanta and 8 against Oklahoma. In the three FBS games before that he had 20, 12 and 33, so his full FBS record is five of eight. We trust the recent number because his job changed.
The quarterback carousel hasn't moved him much. Philo threw most of the passes at Missouri and against South Carolina (25 and 127), and Tramell Jones Jr. threw most of them at Texas, against Georgia and against Oklahoma (31, 76 and 8). Kentucky allows 238.2 passing yards a game, and safeties Ty Bryant and Jordan Castell have four interceptions each, so short throws to the slot look like Florida's safest option.
At -199 the break-even is 66.6%, and the margins are thin. He landed exactly on 25 at Missouri, and against Oklahoma, when Florida completed 10 passes and scored seven points, he caught one ball for 8. Another game like that sinks it.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
