Dodgers vs. Brewers Prediction, MLB NLCS Game 1 Odds & Best Bets (10/11)

Fact checked at 7:16 AM ET, Oct 11, 2026

Odds as of Oct 11, 7:15 AM ET

The National League's two best teams are the last two left. Milwaukee won 103 games and Los Angeles 100, both took their division series 3-1, and both have been off since finishing on Wednesday. The Dodgers swept this matchup in last year's NLCS. The Brewers won this year's season series 4-3.

Game 1 belongs to the starters. Tarik Skubal, acquired from Detroit on Aug. 2, starts for the Dodgers; Dave Roberts named him on Friday. The Brewers answered on Saturday with Jacob Misiorowski, who led the majors with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts. Each started Game 1 of his division series on Oct. 3, so both work on seven days of rest.

The market can barely split the teams: Brewers -112, Dodgers -106, with Milwaukee +1.5 at -200 on the run line. The total opened Thursday at 6.5 with the Under at -134 and has since dropped to 6, Over -111 and Under -110. First pitch is Sunday at 8:00 PM ET at American Family Field, on FOX. Neither club had posted a batting order when we checked.

We think runs will be hard to find, and we think Misiorowski gets his outs without a big strikeout night. Since the middle of August he has been a five-or-six-inning starter who strikes out about six. These teams have already played the kind of game we're betting on. On Aug. 15 at Dodger Stadium, Misiorowski went six innings, struck out six and allowed one run, and the Brewers won 4-1. Both picks below would have cashed that night.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Predictions

• Pick #1: Jacob Misiorowski Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-136)
• Pick #2: Under 6 (-110)

PICK #1: Jacob Misiorowski Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-136)

The 252 strikeouts belong mostly to a pitcher Misiorowski hasn't been for two months. Through Aug. 9 he made 22 starts, struck out 204 in 133 innings (13.8 per nine) and got to eight in 18 of them. In his eight regular-season starts from Aug. 15 on, he struck out 48 in 41 2/3 innings, 10.4 per nine, and the game totals read 6, 6, 6, 5, 9, 7, 4 and 5. Then came six in four innings against San Diego in the division series. That makes one start with eight or more in his last nine.

Two of those nine were cut short on purpose late in September, at 44 and 68 pitches, so throw them out if you like. In the other seven he threw between 82 and 98 pitches and still got to eight only once.

The Dodgers are also the wrong lineup for a strikeout Over. They struck out 1,267 times in the regular season, fourth fewest in the majors. On Aug. 15 they ran him up to 98 pitches in six innings and he left with six strikeouts. The Padres used the same approach last week, fouling off 30 pitches and getting him out of the game after four innings and 88 pitches.

This isn't free money at -136, a price that implies 57.6%. His first pitch against San Diego was 104.8 mph, he's rested, and over the full season he reached eight strikeouts in 19 of 30 starts. He also has 27 strikeouts in 17 career innings against the Dodgers, counting last year's NLCS. Give him seven innings and he probably beats this number. He hasn't completed seven since Aug. 2.

PICK #2: Under 6 (-110)

Start with the Dodgers' bats, because they arrive cold. Los Angeles hit .203 in the division series (27-for-133) and scored 14 runs in four games against Atlanta. Shohei Ohtani went 2-for-13 and slid from second in the order to fifth and then fourth over the last two games. Now they get a starter who held hitters to a .157 average this season, and behind him a Brewers bullpen that gave up one earned run in 19 innings against San Diego. Misiorowski doesn't have to pitch deep for this bet. Five or six innings like Aug. 15 and a low score handed to that bullpen will do.

Skubal makes it hard on Milwaukee too. He has a 2.72 ERA over 158 2/3 innings between Detroit and Los Angeles, 2.61 since the trade, and he allowed one run in six innings in his division series start. Both pitching staffs were stingy all year: the Dodgers allowed 600 runs, fewest in the majors, and the Brewers 618, fourth fewest.

October has been low scoring for both clubs so far. Five of the eight division series games these teams played finished with five runs or fewer, and none landed on six. The late-inning arms are fresh too. Edwin Diaz, Tanner Scott, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill all last pitched on Wednesday.

We'd have liked 6.5 better. That half run is gone, -110 implies 52.4%, and a final of exactly six runs just returns the stake. The Under can lose in plain ways too: the Dodgers scored 801 runs this season (fourth most) and the Brewers 832 (second most), Skubal allowed six runs, five earned, in 12 innings against Milwaukee this year, and 18 of Misiorowski's 31 starts, playoffs included, finished with seven or more total runs. One good starter won't get this home. It needs both, and we think it gets both.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.