Dodgers vs. Braves Prediction, MLB NLDS Game 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/7)

Fact checked at 7:50 AM ET, Oct 7, 2026

Odds as of Oct 7, 7:06 AM ET

One more win sends the Dodgers to their third straight NLCS. Atlanta has to win to keep the season going. Los Angeles leads the best-of-five series 2-1: it won Game 1, 5-3, on Oct 3, lost Game 2, 3-2, on Oct 4 and took Game 3, 3-1, on Tuesday behind 10 strikeouts over seven innings from Yoshinobu Yamamoto. No game has been decided by more than two runs, and all three stayed under their closing totals.

Game 4 is a pair of right-handers. Tyler Glasnow lost more than three months of the regular season to a back injury, then finished with back-to-back double-digit strikeout games. Tyler Mahle has a 1.99 ERA in nine regular-season starts since Atlanta got him at the deadline. Ronald Acuña Jr. has a sore right knee, and manager Walt Weiss wasn't sure he could play the field.

The consensus moneyline has the Dodgers at -146, up from -140 at the open, and the Braves at +122. The total opened at 7.5 and hasn't moved. Neither has the run line, though the price on Dodgers -1.5 has come down from +135 to +124. Our read is that Atlanta keeps this close: Mahle limits the Dodgers, and the Braves scratch out enough against Glasnow to win or lose by one. First pitch is Wednesday at 6:00 PM ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, on FS1.

Dodgers vs. Braves Predictions

• Pick #1: Braves +1.5 (-148)
• Pick #2: Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-122)

PICK #1: Braves +1.5 (-148)

This bet is mostly about Mahle. In 18 starts for the Giants he had a 5.13 ERA. In nine regular-season starts for Atlanta it was 1.99 over 54.1 innings, and in his first postseason start, against the Phillies on Sep. 30, he gave up one earned run in seven innings on 95 pitches. He also shut out the Dodgers for seven innings back in April, when he was still pitching for San Francisco. The Braves' bullpen should be fully available behind him, Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias included. Atlanta allowed 626 runs this season, fifth fewest in the majors, and beat the Dodgers in five of six regular-season meetings. In this series the Braves have lost by two, won by one and lost by two.

The price is -148, which works out to 59.7%. You need an Atlanta win or a one-run Dodgers win. On the run line, 72% of the money and 58% of the bets are on Atlanta.

We see a small lean here, not a bargain. The Dodgers allowed 600 runs, fewest in baseball, and the run-line price has moved their way, from Atlanta -160 at the open to -148. On the moneyline, 74% of the money is on Los Angeles. The Braves have scored seven runs in three games. Drake Baldwin, Acuña and Matt Olson, usually the top three in the order, are a combined 10-for-67 this postseason. If Acuña has to DH again, Ha-Seong Kim, 1-for-30 going back to Sep. 12, probably plays shortstop. Lineups aren't posted yet.

The Braves moneyline at +122 is there if you want the outright win instead.

PICK #2: Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-122)

Nine of Glasnow's 13 regular-season starts ended with him charged for at least two earned runs. Four of his last five did, too. Counting back from his last start, the earned runs went 3, 2, 4, 4 and 1. Since returning in late August from the back injury, he has a 4.46 ERA in six starts, and the first of those came against these Braves on Aug. 25, when he gave up three earned runs in five innings.

At -122, the price asks for a 55.0% chance on a line he cleared 69% of the time this year. The Braves scored 742 runs, eighth most. And the Dodgers are expected to use him as a regular starter this time, not in the hybrid role he had last October, so he should get enough innings to be charged with two.

The danger is that Atlanta's bats stay as quiet as they have been all series. That's the risk both of these picks share. Glasnow held hitters to a .175 average with a 0.95 WHIP this season, and the Braves' .309 on-base percentage ranked 28th. The Dodgers have all eight relievers available, too, and an early hook limits how many runs can land on his line. If he's scratched, skip the bet.

Prefer to bet the Braves' offense directly? Their team total Over 3.5 runs is +114.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.