Dodgers vs. Braves Prediction, MLB NLDS Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/6)

Fact checked at 11:36 AM ET, Oct 6, 2026

Odds as of Oct 6, 11:34 AM ET

The Dodgers won 100 games and the Braves 94, and two games in Los Angeles settled nothing: their National League Division Series is 1-1. The Dodgers took Game 1, 5-3, behind Tarik Skubal. The Braves answered with a 3-2 win in Game 2. Atlanta got through both games with an opener and a line of relievers, the second time so Chris Sale could be held back for this one. He is scheduled to start Game 3 at home against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who would be making his first appearance of this postseason. They last met on Aug. 27 in this ballpark. Sale threw a five-hit shutout and Yamamoto lost 1-0.

The market can't split them either. The consensus moneyline is Dodgers -109, Braves -110, after opening at -110 each way, and the total is 6.5, right where it opened. First pitch of Game 3 in the best-of-five is Tuesday at 6:00 PM ET at Truist Park, on FS1. Both starters are still listed as probable and neither club has posted a lineup. The forecast is clear, in the mid 70s at first pitch and cooling into the 60s, with no rain.

Dodgers vs. Braves Predictions

• Pick #1: Braves Moneyline (-110)
• Pick #2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)

PICK #1: Braves Moneyline (-110)

Two aces start this game, and Sale had the better season. He struck out 200 and walked 31 in 162 2/3 innings over 27 starts. That is 30.9% of the batters he faced struck out and 4.8% walked. Yamamoto struck out 182 and walked 42 in 185 innings over 28 starts, 25.7% and 5.9%. Sale allowed 10 home runs to Yamamoto's 20, and the ERAs were 2.16 and 2.53. Sale is also the one pitching at home, in a game priced as a coin flip. The -110 implies 52.4%.

He is rested, too. Sale last pitched on Oct. 1, when he threw 21 pitches to get the final four outs of the Wild Card Series, so he starts on five days of rest. "We want full-strength Chris Sale," manager Walt Weiss said. He has faced the Dodgers twice this year and allowed two earned runs in 16 innings, and one of those starts was the Aug. 27 shutout, when he struck out 11. Atlanta won the season series 5-1 and swept three games in this ballpark in late August, 4-3, 6-5 and 1-0.

The worry with Atlanta is the bullpen, which covered most of two games in Los Angeles. Monday's off day helps. Raisel Iglesias threw three pitches on Sunday, Robert Suarez 15 and Dylan Lee 14, and the club says all three are available. Didier Fuentes (47 pitches on Sunday) and Ray Kerr (42) are not, so the Braves are two arms short behind Sale. Over the regular season their relievers had a 3.44 ERA and the Dodgers' had a 3.74. Atlanta also hit better at home: 387 runs and a .749 OPS in 81 home games, against a .688 OPS on the road.

We'd call this a fair price with a small lean. It isn't a bargain. The Dodgers won six more games and scored 801 runs, fourth in the majors, and a left-hander doesn't slow them down much: their OPS was .756 against lefties and .766 against righties. One major book opened Atlanta at -118 and the price has come back to even, so the move since the open has been toward the Dodgers. Yamamoto gave up one run in 6 1/3 innings here on Aug. 27.

PICK #2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)

This is the smaller of the two bets, and the number moved this morning. Yamamoto's strikeout line was 5.5 earlier, with the Over at -160. It is now 6.5, with the Over at +114 at one major book, which implies 46.7%. He needs seven.

He struck out seven or more in 15 of his 28 starts this season and in six of his last 10. His last five went 8, 8, 10, 7 and 4, and the first of those came against Atlanta on Aug. 27, when he went 6 1/3 innings on 105 pitches. He recorded at least 17 outs in each of his last 10 starts and threw between 88 and 107 pitches in every one. Over the full season it was 182 strikeouts in 28 starts, which averages out to 6.5 a start. That is exactly the line, so this is only a bet at plus money.

Atlanta doesn't give strikeouts away. The Braves struck out 1,310 times this season, tied for the ninth-fewest in the majors, and less often at home, 609 times in 2,974 plate appearances. They did strike out nine and 10 times in the first two games of this series, but both were against left-handed starters. Left-handed hitters Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II are expected near the top against the right-hander, and the batting order isn't posted yet. The 4 in that last-five run was his most recent start, four strikeouts in six innings. One public projection we read has him at 5.7.

Then there is the layoff. He is the Dodgers' scheduled Game 3 starter and no pitch limit has been announced. He last pitched in a game on Sep 23, 13 days ago. The gap comes from how the club lined up its rotation, with Skubal and Blake Snell in the first two games, not from an injury, and he threw a simulated game on Sep 30 to stay on schedule. A long layoff can cost a starter his feel as easily as it rests him. The pick assumes a normal start. If the Dodgers announce a limit, pass. If he is scratched, skip the bet.

These two picks are not one opinion bet twice. A night when Yamamoto strikes out seven is usually a night when he pitches well, and that works against a Braves ticket more than for it. Both can still win together. On Aug. 27 he struck out eight and Atlanta won 1-0.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.