Fact checked at 7:26 AM ET, Nov 12, 2026Odds as of 6:21 AM ET, Nov 12, 2026
The Giants (5-2-1) lead the NFC East and host the Commanders (2-5-1) on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. Rain is forecast through the afternoon and is still likely at kickoff, with temperatures falling from the low 50s into the upper 40s and a northeast wind around 12 mph that gusts above 20. The total opened at 43.5 and has dropped to 41 as the forecast turned wet. New York is a 2-point favorite. The first meeting ended in a 27-27 tie.
Both quarterbacks are expected to start. J.J. McCarthy hurt his hip in Philadelphia last week but finished this week as a full participant and has no injury designation, and Jayden Daniels was a full participant all week. Washington has ruled out center Lucas Patrick (concussion) and tight end Colson Yankoff (knee). Giants linebacker Malik Harrison (groin) is questionable.
We see a wet, low-scoring game, and Washington's short-handed offense has the harder night in it. The Commanders are without Terry McLaurin, lead back Jacory Croskey-Merritt and now their center, and the defense across from them had seven sacks four days ago. Both picks come down to scarce points and stalled Washington drives.
Commanders vs. Giants Predictions
Pick #1Under 41−111
Washington's last three games have finished with 40, 37 and 33 points. Almost all of that stretch was played without McLaurin and Croskey-Merritt, who are both on injured reserve. The Commanders managed 13 points against the Rams last week, and Daniels has been sacked four or more times in three of his last four games. Now he gets a Giants defense that allows 177.8 net passing yards per game, third-fewest in the league, and held the Eagles to 11 points and 220 yards last week.
New York's offense isn't set up to run up the score tonight either. The Giants scored 19 in Philadelphia with one touchdown, and Jameis Winston threw it while McCarthy was out with the hip injury. McCarthy finished 12 of 19 for 127 yards and took five sacks. Cam Skattebo is expected back from a hamstring injury, so on a wet night the Giants can keep the ball on the ground and shorten the game.
The first meeting is the obvious objection to the Under. It was also played in the rain and still reached 54 points. But it was 12-3 at halftime. The 39 points after the break came with Winston throwing 54 passes in a comeback and Daniels scoring on two runs of 30-plus yards, and Winston is the backup now. Daniels' legs worry us more, because the Giants give up 4.7 yards per carry.
At -111 the Under is priced as a 52.6% chance. On the total, 63% of the money is on the Under, from 49% of the bets. A 20-17 or 23-16 game stays under, and a 24-17 game lands on 41 and returns the stake.
Pick #2Austin Ekeler Under 42.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards−116
Ekeler hasn't reached this number in any of his five games this season. His totals are 40, 14, 7, 36 and 34 yards. The last two totals came with Croskey-Merritt on injured reserve, and the 34 came after Jeremy McNichols joined him there, which left Washington with a two-man backfield. Ekeler got eight carries in each of those two games. Against the Rams he played 28 of 62 snaps to Rachaad White's 35, and the two backs combined for 15 carries and 44 yards.
He isn't making up the difference with long gains. Ekeler has 24 carries for 83 yards this season, 3.5 per carry with a long of 18, and six catches for 48 yards on eight targets. Tonight he runs without Patrick at center, and Daniels takes rushing work of his own. Daniels ran for 103 yards in the first meeting, when Ekeler finished with 14 yards from scrimmage in a smaller role. If Washington's drives stall the way we expect, there won't be many touches to go around.
A bigger workload is the way he gets past this number. Dan Quinn has said he wants to stay with the run for four quarters, and rain adds handoffs. The Giants also allow 123.6 rushing yards per game. Even so, Ekeler would need more work than he has had in any game this season, or one long gain. At -116 the market gives him a 53.7% chance of staying under again.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
