Buccaneers vs. Bears Prediction, NFL Week 9 SNF Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:21 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:12 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Tampa Bay (3-5) visits Chicago (6-2) at Soldier Field, with kickoff at 8:20 PM ET. The Bears have won three straight and are 6-point favorites. The Buccaneers have won three of their last four after an 0-4 start by running the ball and getting stops. They lead the league at 168.6 rushing yards per game, allow 18.9 points per game (fifth-fewest entering the week) and have thrown just 14 passes over their last two games, completing none in a 16-0 win over Atlanta played in a downpour. Tampa Bay should play this one the same way: run, keep the ball and trust its defense. That makes for a close, slow game where the Buccaneers stay within the number and Mayfield throws little. Both picks come from that game. Mayfield and Caleb Williams are the expected starters, not confirmed ones.

Buccaneers vs. Bears Predictions

• Pick #1: Buccaneers +6 (-110)
• Pick #2: Baker Mayfield Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-163)

PICK #1: Buccaneers +6 (-110)

Six points is a lot to lay against this Tampa Bay defense. Over its last four games the unit has allowed 13.8 points a game and forced 12 takeaways. It gives up 80 rushing yards a game, and no opponent since the opener has reached 100 on the ground. Chicago's staff has noticed. "You don't see a lot of great runs against them," Bears offensive coordinator Press Taylor said.

The Buccaneers have also lived inside one score. None of their five losses came by more than seven points, and at +6 they would have covered five of their eight games, with a push at Cincinnati. Tampa Bay also ranks third in time of possession, and every long drive is one fewer chance for Chicago to pull away. Most of the spread money is on the Buccaneers too: 60% of it, from 41% of the bets.

Most national previews pick Chicago to win, and a Bears win by five or fewer still pays this. At -110, the break-even is 52.4%. The danger is Chicago's defense, which ranks first in the league on third downs and added defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons in a trade with Tennessee. If the Bears get early stops and a lead, a Tampa Bay passing game that ranks last in the league at 131.4 yards per game has to carry the night.

PICK #2: Baker Mayfield Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-163)

Tampa Bay has not thrown two touchdown passes in a game all season, no matter who played quarterback. Mayfield has gone 0, 1, 1, 1 and 0 in his five starts. The first three came with a healthy hand and 28, 34 and 34 attempts, and he still never threw more than one. Since returning from the thumb injury that cost him three games, he has attempted 11 passes and then 3, and he says the once-dislocated thumb likely won't be back to normal until the offseason.

The -163 price implies a 62.0% chance. Last season, with a healthy hand, he threw two or more in 8 of 17 games, which would not clear that bar. This offense is different. Jalen McMillan is on injured reserve, Emeka Egbuka is questionable after missing two straight games, and the touchdowns have come on the ground: Bucky Irving ran for 170 yards and Kenneth Gainwell for 140 against Atlanta. Chicago's defense also gets teams off the field: opponents convert only 23.75% of their third downs, the best mark in the league. Mayfield called Simmons "a game wrecker."

Todd Bowles said "We know we have to be more balanced," and Egbuka's return would give Mayfield more to work with. The way this loses is Tampa Bay falling behind and throwing all night, which is not the game we expect. The prop needs Mayfield to play; books generally void it if he doesn't.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.