Houston vs. California Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:21 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:12 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

No. 10 Houston and California meet at 8:30 PM ET in Stateline, Nevada, a neutral site where Houston is the designated home team. Houston should win this, and its defense should decide it. We just don't expect a fast game. Houston played at one of the slowest paces in Division I last season, and fewer possessions leave less room for a 20-point margin and less room for a combined score in the high 140s. Both picks come from that game: Houston in control, winning by less than the spread, with the total staying under.

Houston vs. California Predictions

• Pick #1: California +19.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Under 145.5 (-115)

PICK #1: California +19.5 (-110)

Laying 19.5 points with a team that doesn't play many possessions is asking a lot. One ratings model has Houston as about a 12-point favorite, more than seven points short of this spread. At -110, Cal is priced as a 52.4% chance to cover.

Houston's only game is the obvious objection. The Cougars beat La Salle 94-55 and held the Explorers to 15-of-60 shooting, a margin that would have covered this number easily. La Salle also turned it over 19 times and sent Houston to the line 37 times, and those are cheap points a half-court game doesn't hand out. Cal hasn't proved much either. One of its wins came against Division II Adams State, and in the 84-70 win over Radford, the Highlanders got within two points midway through the second half. The case here is the size of the number against the pace, not Cal's résumé.

Houston may be missing a starter. Forward Chase McCarty started the opener and had 10 points and six rebounds before spraining his knee, and he is questionable. Cal has played both games without center Lee Dort, its only returning starter, because of a sprained ankle, and his status is unclear. If he plays, Cal gets size it hasn't had.

The money sits on Houston, with 81% of spread bets and 92% of spread money. A repeat of the opener, full of turnovers, transition baskets and free throws, would get the Cougars there.

PICK #2: Under 145.5 (-115)

A slow game should keep the scoring down too, and the same model projects a combined 140. The Under at -115 implies 53.5%.

The record is the hurdle: none of the three games these teams have played this season stayed under 145.5. Two of them need an asterisk. Cal's 115-86 win was against Adams State, a Division II team. Houston's opener reached 149, but 44 of those points came at the free-throw line, where the teams took 60 free throws on 48 fouls. A cleaner game takes a lot of that away.

Cal's win over Radford, its only Division I opponent, is the one to worry about. It reached 154, with Cal making 17 of 35 threes, and through two games the Bears are shooting 48.3% from three on 29 attempts a game. Transfer guard Nojus Indrusaitis averages 25 points, and Michael Cooper scores 20 a game off the bench. If they stay that hot, this goes over. They'll be doing it against a defense that just held La Salle to 8 of 39 from deep, though. The bettors agree with us here, with 62% of the total bets and 59% of the money on the Under.

We want the game Houston usually plays, with long possessions and few trips to the line, and a Houston win that never turns into a race.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.