USC vs. Wichita State Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:17 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:06 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

No. 21 USC and Wichita State, both 1-0, meet at 11:00 PM ET in Stateline, Nevada, in the Lake Tahoe Classic. USC is the designated home team on a neutral floor, a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 156.5. This sets up as a grind. Wichita State is a veteran team that turned it over three times in its opener, and USC is short on healthy big men. If the Shockers drag this into a slow half-court game, the score stays down and they stay within reach, so we're on the Under and Wichita State with the points.

USC vs. Wichita State Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 156.5 (-106)
• Pick #2: Wichita State +6.5 (-115)

PICK #1: Under 156.5 (-106)

USC's opener ran on turnovers, and Wichita State's ran on the opposite. The Trojans forced 17 against Milwaukee, picked up 12 steals and scored 19 points off those mistakes. Wichita State committed three turnovers against Cal State Northridge in its only game, tied for the second fewest in program history. If the Shockers protect the ball anything like that, USC has to score in the half court with a thin frontcourt. Seven-footer Eric Reibe is out after foot surgery until conference play at the earliest, five-star freshman Christian Collins didn't play in the opener, and starting forward Jacob Cofie lasted nine minutes before back spasms ended his night. "Am I concerned about him playing (against) Wichita (State)? Yeah, for sure," coach Eric Musselman said.

One widely used set of tempo-free ratings projects fewer than 156.5 points, and the Under has 81% of the money against 60% of the bets. At -106, the Under carries a 51.5% implied probability. The openers don't settle much with one game each: Wichita State's 79-67 win totaled 146, under this number, and USC's 95-63 rout totaled 158, a point and a half over it.

A hot shooting night would ruin it. USC made 12 of 22 threes in its opener, five of them from freshman Adonis Ratliff, and that kind of game can clear 156.5 almost alone. Wichita State's opener wasn't slow either, at 76 possessions against Cal State Northridge.

PICK #2: Wichita State +6.5 (-115)

Wichita State has the older, more settled roster. It brings back 12 letterwinners and 75.5 percent of its scoring, and USC's own game notes rank it No. 7 in Division I experience. USC is still fitting freshmen and transfers around guards Rodney Rice and Alijah Arenas, whom injuries kept from playing together last season.

The Shockers also beat Cal State Northridge without Dillon Battie and T.J. Williams, two of their top five returning scorers. William Berg set career highs with 26 points and 16 rebounds, and Kenyon Giles added 21 points and a career-high eight assists against one turnover. Battie, a 6-foot-9 forward, is reported likely to return from a minor hamstring injury, which would give Paul Mills the size he lacked in the opener. Williams, who has a knee injury, is less certain. "We need Dillon and TJ back," Mills said, "because this isn't really how we're going to play."

The same tempo-free ratings make USC a favorite by less than five, and 80% of the spread money backs Wichita State against 60% of the bets. The -115 price implies 53.5%.

Mills' record against good teams is the knock. Wichita State is 1-7 against ranked opponents under him and hasn't beaten a Top 25 team on a neutral floor since 2016. It also needed a late push to beat Cal State Northridge 79-67 and didn't cover the 15.5 it was laying. USC has six players 6-foot-10 or taller to Wichita State's three, and if Battie sits again, the Shockers take on that size with the same short rotation they used in the opener.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.