Bills vs. Vikings Prediction, NFL Week 9 MNF Odds & Best Bets (11/9)

Fact checked at 9:40 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Odds as of 8:31 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Two 6-1 teams meet on Monday Night Football at U.S. Bank Stadium, kickoff 8:15 PM ET under a fixed roof. Buffalo scores a league-best 33.29 points per game. Minnesota allows a league-low 13.29, and its 154.9 net passing yards allowed per game are also the fewest in the league. The Vikings will be without Kyler Murray (hamstring), and the club has named Carson Wentz the starter. We think Minnesota's defense turns this into a close game with few points, and every pick below is built on that one script.

Buffalo has a question of its own up front. Left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs) and left guard Alec Anderson (ankle) are questionable on the final injury report, and Dawkins did not practice all week.

Bills vs. Vikings Predictions

• Pick #1: Dawson Knox Under 8.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• Pick #2: Vikings +3 (-103)
• Pick #3: Under 44.5 (-112)

PICK #1: Dawson Knox Under 8.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Knox hasn't caught a pass longer than 8 yards all season. He plays a lot, between 61% and 76% of Buffalo's offensive snaps every game, but mostly as a blocker: one to three targets a game and nine catches for 42 yards in seven games. Newest first, his receiving yards read 6, 0, 6, 13, 5, 5 and 7. The 13 came on two catches against New England, and it's the only time he cleared this number.

Minnesota allows the fewest net passing yards in the league, so this is a bad week to expect a breakout. Dalton Kincaid, DJ Moore and Keon Coleman carry no injury designation, which means the players who soak up Buffalo's targets are all available. Receiver Joshua Palmer is out, so a few looks open up somewhere, and a single 9-yard catch would beat us. The -114 price implies 53.3%. Six of seven games under, against this defense, says the real number is higher. The bet needs Knox to play.

PICK #2: Vikings +3 (-103)

Nobody has scored more than 22 points on Minnesota this season. Its one loss was by four, 19-15 at Detroit. The wins: 39-22 over Green Bay, 9-3 at Chicago, 23-16 at Tampa Bay, 15-10 over Miami, 23-13 at New Orleans and 16-10 over Indianapolis.

Wentz isn't a stranger to this. He came on for Murray in the opener and helped finish the comeback against Green Bay, then started the win at Chicago, so Minnesota is 2-0 in games he has played. He knows what the job is: "Our defense is playing lights-out, so I think we've gotta just find ways to stay on the field and keep [the defense] off the field." Long Vikings drives leave Buffalo fewer chances, and that's how a field goal of cushion holds.

What beats this is Buffalo's offense, with 33 or more in five of seven games, while Minnesota's own offense averages 20.0 points. At -103 the break-even is 50.7%, and a three-point Buffalo win is a push. The pick depends on Wentz starting, as the club announced.

PICK #3: Under 44.5 (-112)

Six of Minnesota's seven games finished under 44.5. The Vikings held Chicago to 3 points and Miami and Indianapolis to 10 each, and Wentz's plan to sustain drives and rest the defense means fewer possessions for both teams. Bettors have piled in too: 95% of the money is on the Under, from 72% of the bets.

Buffalo's scoring is the reason this total isn't lower. The Bills' games went over 44.5 in six of seven, and their defense allows 25.86 points per game, 24th in the league. Pile up enough long Buffalo drives and this goes over. We're siding with the defense on its home field. The -112 price works out to a 52.8% chance, and the Under also depends on Wentz starting.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.