Pelicans vs. Warriors Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/9)

Fact checked at 9:40 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Odds as of 8:31 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Golden State (7-3, fifth in the West) has won seven straight, most recently a 126-119 overtime win over Orlando two nights ago in which Stephen Curry scored 41. New Orleans (4-6, 11th in the West) arrives on the second night of a back-to-back after losing 139-123 at the Clippers last night. The Warriors are short-handed. Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis and Will Richard are all out on the latest injury report, Richard with a torn UCL in his left thumb, and Gui Santos is probable with left knee tendinitis. Golden State is a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 231.5. We expect points and a closer game than the spread suggests: the Pelicans keep scoring, and a thin Warriors rotation relies on its starters without pulling away. Tipoff is 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in San Francisco.

Pelicans vs. Warriors Predictions

• Pick #1: Pelicans +9.5 (-111)
• Pick #2: Over 231.5 (-115)
• Pick #3: Brandin Podziemski Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-122)

PICK #1: Pelicans +9.5 (-111)

New Orleans has lost by more than nine points only twice in 10 games this season, by 13 at home to Denver and by 16 at the Clippers last night. Every other result was a win or a loss by six or fewer. This offense scores 120.5 points a game, second in the league, and even in last night's loss Trey Murphy III had 26, Jeremiah Fears 25 and Zion Williamson 25 on 9-of-9 shooting. Fears has 20 or more in three of his last five. Before the last two losses, the Pelicans had won four straight.

Golden State's streak is real, but the wins haven't all been lopsided. Three of the seven wins in the streak came by seven points or fewer, and the Warriors are 5-1 at Chase Center with an average margin of 9.3 points, which still falls inside this number. The spread money tilts toward New Orleans: 77% of it from 47% of the tickets. At -111 the Pelicans imply a 52.6% chance.

Fatigue is the worry. This is the back end of a back-to-back for New Orleans, and the case assumes the Pelicans' regular starters play on the second night.

PICK #2: Over 231.5 (-115)

New Orleans allows 120.8 a game, 26th in the league, and just gave up 139. It also scores 120.5. Seven of its 10 games have gone over 231.5, and six of Golden State's 10 have too. Curry has scored 29 or more in each of his last four games (31, 34, 29 and 41).

At -115 the Over implies 53.5%. Bettors are heavy on the same side, with 90% of the total money on the Over from 75% of the tickets.

Golden State's defense could keep this down. It allows 113.6 a game, 15th in the league, and the Warriors have gone over this number only twice in their last five games, while New Orleans has gone over three times. Tired legs could also cost the Pelicans some of their shooting.

PICK #3: Brandin Podziemski Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-122)

Podziemski has started each of Golden State's last five games and played 32 to 39 minutes in them. His points plus rebounds in those games: 22, 15, 23, 25 and 26. Over all eight of his games this season he has cleared 20.5 five times, and he averages 21.1.

He gets there from both sides of the line. He scored between 15 and 21 points in four of the last five, grabbed between three and eight rebounds, and hit at least two threes every time. Against Orlando he had seven rebounds in 39 minutes. With Moody and Richard out, there are fewer places for the guard minutes to go, and New Orleans gives up 120.8 points a game.

His one miss in that stretch was a nine-point, 32-minute night against Miami. He is a projected starter, not a confirmed one, and the case needs his usual role and minutes. The -122 price implies 55.0%.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.