Packers vs. Patriots Prediction, NFL Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:13 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:12 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Two 5-3 teams meet at 4:25 PM ET in Foxborough, and neither offense arrives whole. Green Bay has ruled out center Sean Rhyan and guard Travis Glover, and its run game was already the league's worst at 60.6 yards per game. New England has ruled out receiver A.J. Brown and running back TreVeyon Henderson, and tight end Hunter Henry is questionable with a foot injury. The Patriots are 3-point favorites and the total is 44.5.

This looks like a grind. Green Bay's defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in any of its last five games, and the forecast calls for a west wind in the teens with gusts into the 20s and 30s, which won't do either deep passing game any favors. In that kind of game, Jordan Love throws from the pocket instead of running, New England feeds Rhamondre Stevenson on the ground rather than through the air, and the total stays under 44.5. Both quarterbacks are projected starters: Love isn't on Green Bay's injury report, and Drake Maye practiced fully all week.

Packers vs. Patriots Predictions

• Pick #1: Jordan Love Under 3.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
• Pick #2: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 3.5 Receptions (-106)
• Pick #3: Under 44.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Jordan Love Under 3.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Love has 10 rushing yards on 11 carries all season. He finished at zero or below in six of his eight starts, including the last two against Detroit and Carolina, and only the Dallas game (12 yards) and the Chicago game (6) got past this line. That's a 75% hit rate against a price that implies 53.5%.

Green Bay can't run the ball, so it throws. Love leads the league with 312 attempts, and no quarterback has thrown more deep passes. A passer waiting on deep routes to develop isn't looking to tuck it and go, and any kneel-downs at the end of a half come off his total.

Pressure is what could beat this. Rhyan and Glover are both out on the interior of the line, and if the pocket caves in, two scrambles can clear 3.5 on their own. The pick also assumes Love starts, as expected.

PICK #2: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 3.5 Receptions (-106)

Last week's win in Miami is the best guide to Stevenson's role. Henderson missed that game too, and Stevenson played about three-quarters of the offensive snaps. He ran 19 times for 82 yards and caught three passes. The extra snaps turned into carries, not catches.

At -106, the Under's break-even is 51.5%. Stevenson has three catches or fewer in six of eight games this season, and the only exceptions were five-catch games against Seattle and Chicago. On a windy afternoon against a Green Bay defense that has been hard to score on, New England has every reason to keep handing him the ball.

Maye's thin receiving group could change that. Brown is out and Henry may sit, and if Maye is under pressure all afternoon, his back becomes the easiest throw on the field. The pick also assumes Maye starts and Stevenson keeps the lead role.

PICK #3: Under 44.5 (-110)

Start with the Green Bay defense. It held its last five opponents to 14, 7, 13, 20 and 19 points, and its 15 forced turnovers are tied for second in the league. New England has turned it over 15 times, tied for the third-most, so Green Bay should get chances to end drives early.

Neither offense is at full strength. Green Bay is missing Rhyan and Glover in front of the league's least productive run game, and New England is without Brown and Henderson, with Henry a game-time call. A stiff west wind makes long completions harder for both quarterbacks. Nine of the two teams' 16 games finished under 44.5, including four of Green Bay's last five. The Under at -110 implies 52.4%, and bigger bets sit on the same side: 71% of the money on the total is on the Under, from 50% of the tickets.

New England's recent scoring is the problem. Four of the Patriots' last five games cleared this number, including a 45-17 win over Las Vegas, and Green Bay is without edge rusher Micah Parsons. Love throws deep more than anyone, too, and two long completions can undo a quiet afternoon.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.