Fact checked at 9:10 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:24 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
California (3-6, 2-4 ACC) visits Virginia (4-5, 2-4 ACC) at 3:30 PM ET at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. Both teams are coming off an open week, and both have lost three straight. Virginia is an 11.5-point favorite with the total at 46.5. This looks like a low-scoring game Virginia can't pull away in. The Cavaliers have scored 7, 28, 13, 16 and 7 points in their last five games, and Cal barely runs the ball, so we're taking Cal with the points and the Under.
California vs. Virginia Predictions
Pick #1California +11.5−110
Virginia hasn't beaten an FBS team by more than three points since its fourth game of the season. It has won by 12 or more twice in eight games against FBS opponents, 34-8 over NC State in the opener and 42-3 over Delaware. After that came a 38-7 loss at Florida State, a 28-25 win over Syracuse, and losses of 23-13 at SMU, 19-16 to Duke and 51-7 at Wake Forest. Against Power Four teams the offense averages 18.9 points, which is a tough number to lay 11.5 with.
Virginia's offensive line is still a problem. It has allowed 28 sacks, tied for the most in the ACC, and the latest conference report lists offensive linemen Noah Hartsoe and Grant Ellinger as out. Linebacker Maddox Marcellus, the team's leading tackler, is out too. Cal's offense isn't good, but it throws short and often, and Chase Hendricks has caught seven or eight passes in each of his last five games. Quick throws against a thin linebacker group are how the Bears can keep drives alive.
At -110 the implied probability is 52.4%. The larger bets are with us: Cal has 57% of the spread money on 43% of the tickets.
There is a real case against Cal. The Bears lost their last three by 34, 39 and 21 points and were outscored 63-0 after halftime in the last two. Nobody in the country has more penalty yards, and they're 1-3 on the road. The average of published computer projections has Virginia by about 12, basically this number. Running back Jekail Middlebrook is expected back against a Cal defense that allows 184.6 rushing yards a game. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Beau Pribula are the expected quarterbacks, but neither school has confirmed a starter.
Pick #2Under 46.5−108
This starts with Virginia's offense. It hasn't scored more than 16 points in a game since the Syracuse win: 13 at SMU, 16 against Duke, 7 at Wake Forest. Pribula has taken a beating behind that line, and Virginia ran for 16 yards at Wake.
Cal isn't going to carry the scoring either. The Bears put up 7, 20 and 10 in their last three games. They average 82.8 rushing yards a game, 137th of 138 FBS teams, and they were shut out after halftime in each of their last two. Virginia's pass defense gives up 189.7 yards a game, and opponents complete only 53.8% of their throws.
Five of Virginia's eight games against FBS teams stayed under 46.5, and four of Cal's eight did. The -108 price implies 51.9%, and with two offenses this limited we like the Under to clear that. The money points the same way, 54% on the Under from 48% of the bets.
What beats us is Virginia's run game coming back to life. Middlebrook ran for 117 yards against Duke before he missed the Wake Forest game, and Cal has allowed 22 rushing touchdowns. SMU scored 59 on the Bears and Wake Forest scored 41. If Virginia gets to 30, neither pick is likely to hold up.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
