Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, MLB NLDS Game 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/7)

Fact checked at 7:51 AM ET, Oct 7, 2026

Odds as of Oct 7, 7:06 AM ET

Milwaukee is one win from the NLCS. The 103-59 Brewers won the first two games of this best-of-five at home, 3-2 and 4-3, before San Diego stayed alive Tuesday with a 4-3 win at Petco Park. Michael King, the Padres' Game 2 starter, got the last six outs. Now it's Walker Buehler's turn. He was activated from the paternity list Monday and hasn't pitched since Sep 26. Milwaukee still hasn't named a starter. Pat Murphy mentioned Robert Gasser, Chad Patrick and Shane Drohan, and an opener ahead of Gasser is possible.

The Padres are -115 and the Brewers -105. The run line is Brewers -1.5 (+165) and Padres +1.5 (-200), and the total is 7.5 (Over -100, Under -120). It opened at Padres -116 and Brewers -104 with the same 7.5, so the market has barely budged. The three games so far produced five, seven and seven runs.

First pitch is Wednesday at 10:00 PM ET at Petco Park on FS1. The National Weather Service hourly forecast calls for about 80 degrees at first pitch, mostly clear skies, a light northwest wind around 5 mph and no rain.

We're betting on Milwaukee's left-handed bats getting to Buehler, and on a Padres bullpen that has been stretched all week having to cover too much. Both bets can lose together. If Buehler is sharp and works deep, neither one is in good shape.

Brewers vs. Padres Predictions

• Pick #1: Christian Yelich Over 0.5 Hits (-155)
• Pick #2: Over 7.5 (-100)

PICK #1: Christian Yelich Over 0.5 Hits (-155)

Left-handed hitters have been Buehler's problem all season. They hit .273 with a .351 on-base percentage off him over 333 at-bats, while right-handers managed .234 and .300.

Yelich is the lefty we want against him. He's 4-for-10 with a double, and he's hitting the ball as hard as anyone in this series. In Game 3 he singled twice, one of them a 107.2 mph RBI single in the seventh. His last at-bat was a 107 mph shot up the middle that Xander Bogaerts stopped on a short hop and turned into the game-ending double play. He has a hit in each of his last five starts (2, 1, 1, 1 and 1), all at designated hitter, and MLB.com projects him sixth in the order.

We won't pretend this is a big edge. Yelich hit .235 in the regular season, .244 against right-handers, and had a hit in 68 of his 108 games with at least three plate appearances. That's about 63%. At -155, the break-even is 60.8%, so the bet depends on the Buehler matchup and his current form adding a few points. Lineups aren't out yet. If he isn't in the order, pass. His late at-bats could also come against a lefty: Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta (activated Tuesday) or Adrian Morejon if he's available. Yelich hit .212 against left-handers this season. For a bigger payout on the same player, Yelich Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+125) is on the same side, though it needs Milwaukee to score around him.

PICK #2: Over 7.5 (-100)

This is the bigger swing on the same idea. Buehler doesn't go deep, and San Diego's middle relief has to cover a lot of innings again.

Buehler finished with a 4.63 ERA over 153.2 innings, allowed a .256 average and 22 home runs, and his last five starts lasted 5, 2.1, 4.2, 6.2 and 3.2 innings. He's coming off 11 days without pitching, and he's facing a Milwaukee team that scored 832 runs this season, second-most in the majors. The bullpen behind him is worn. Bradgley Rodriguez and Matsui have pitched in all three games of the series. King threw 40 pitches Tuesday two days after a 72-pitch start, and MLB.com doubts he pitches again. The back end is unsettled too. The Padres put closer Mason Miller on the paternity list before Game 3, and pitching coach Ruben Niebla said the club expects him back for Game 4, but he hasn't been activated yet. Morejon missed Game 3 with what manager Craig Stammen called "stickiness" in his shoulder. He hasn't pitched since Game 1, and King said only that he could be available.

The money leans the same way: the Over has 61% of the dollars on 36% of the bets. Even money makes it a 50.0% proposition.

We can make the Under case without much trouble, which is why this is the smaller bet. All three games finished with seven runs or fewer, and Milwaukee allowed 618 runs this season, fourth-fewest in the majors. Gasser, the likeliest starter or bulk arm, posted a 1.67 ERA over his final six outings, and Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill are rested after neither pitched Tuesday. San Diego scored 722 runs, 15th in the majors, and Buehler held Milwaukee to one run on three hits over six innings at Petco Park on Aug 11. A Miller return would also shorten the game for San Diego.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.