Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, MLB NLDS Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/6)

Fact checked at 11:35 AM ET, Oct 6, 2026

Odds as of Oct 6, 11:30 AM ET

Milwaukee needs one more win to reach the National League Championship Series. The Brewers, 103-59 in the regular season, won the first two games of this best-of-five at home by a run each: 3-2 on Saturday, then 4-3 on Sunday when Jackson Chourio hit a two-run single off Mason Miller in the ninth. The Padres went 91-71 and now have to win three in a row.

They're favored tonight anyway, and the reason is the pitching matchup. Nick Pivetta missed nearly five months with a flexor strain in his right elbow, came back in September and has a 1.64 ERA in five starts since. The last of those was 3.1 innings in the Wild Card clincher against the Cubs. Milwaukee counters with Dustin May, who went 1-2 with a 7.61 ERA over his final eight outings of the regular season. His ERA was 4.70 for the full season and 5.65 in the 36.2 innings he threw after the Brewers traded for him. Both managers named their starters on Sunday, Oct 4, and both pitchers were still listed as the probables on Tuesday morning.

San Diego is -135 and Milwaukee +115. The total is 7.5 (Over -105, Under -115). The Padres opened -125 on Sunday night with a total of 7. Neither club has posted a lineup. Game 3 starts Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET at Petco Park on FS1, and it will be a warm one: about 84 degrees at first pitch, mostly clear, a light northwest wind and no rain expected.

Both of my bets are on the Milwaukee side, and you should know they can lose together. If May gets knocked out in the first inning or two, neither one is in good shape. Past that they are different bets. The first needs three strikeouts from May however the game goes. The second needs the Brewers to win a game in which neither starter is expected to pitch four innings.

Brewers vs. Padres Predictions

• Pick #1: Dustin May Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-153)
• Pick #2: Brewers Moneyline (+115)

PICK #1: Dustin May Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-153)

May's results got ugly late in the season, but he kept missing bats. He struck out 5, 6, 4, 2 and 5 in his last five starts, from Sep 5 through Sep 26, and he has had at least three strikeouts in 25 of his 31 starts this season.

What I like is that the strikeouts didn't go away when the outings got short. Milwaukee pitched him more often and in shorter bursts over his final three regular-season outings, which lasted 2.1, 2 and 3 innings. He faced 37 batters in those and struck out 11. That includes four strikeouts in 2.1 innings on Sep 18 and five in three innings on Sep 26. The one miss was Sep 22, when he had two in two innings.

He has done it to this team, too. May made three starts against San Diego this season, two with St. Louis and one with Milwaukee, and struck out 7, 9 and 6. That is 22 in 22 innings. Padres hitters struck out 1,310 times in 6,070 plate appearances this season, or 21.6%. May's season rate is 23.2% (144 of 621 batters).

The risk is how long he pitches. Neither club has stated a plan. May hasn't pitched since Sep 26, and Milwaukee has Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison rested behind him. None of the three has pitched in the series, and Monday was an off day. On the morning board, May's outs line was 8.5 with the Over at -133, so the market expects about three innings. Three innings was enough on Sep 26. Two innings on Sep 22 was not.

The price is -153 as of this morning. It implies a 60.5% chance, and the Under is +120. The 7.61 ERA over his final eight outings doesn't hurt this bet by itself, since he was striking hitters out while giving up runs. An early knockout would. I'd call this a fair price with a small margin and not a bargain. If Milwaukee opens with a reliever or May is scratched, pass.

PICK #2: Brewers Moneyline (+115)

The better team is getting plus money. Milwaukee outscored its opponents by 214 runs this season, 832 to 618, and a 103-59 record is exactly what that run differential projects. San Diego outscored opponents by 41, 722 to 681. That projects to 85-77, so the Padres won six more games than their runs say they should have.

The price is about the starters, and the starters are a smaller part of this game than usual. The morning prop board had Pivetta's outs line at 10.5 and May's at 8.5, which means the market expects neither of them to finish the fourth inning. Pivetta has been very good since he came back: 22 strikeouts and four walks in 22 innings. He also hasn't gone past five innings or 87 pitches in any of those five starts, and the Padres pulled him after 3.1 innings and 66 pitches in the Wild Card clincher.

So each bullpen has five or six innings to cover, and I think Milwaukee is at least even there. Brewers relievers had a 3.40 ERA in the regular season, third in the majors. San Diego's had a 3.53, which was fifth. Milwaukee's have thrown nine scoreless innings in this series, with Gasser, Drohan and Harrison still unused. The Padres' late innings are less settled. Miller threw 40 pitches on Sunday and walked three in the ninth inning he lost. He allowed five earned runs in 12.2 innings in September, and manager Craig Stammen said on Monday the club may have to adjust how it uses him for more than one inning. Jeremiah Estrada is out with a right shoulder impingement.

May, for all his trouble lately, has been at his best against this lineup. He has a 1.23 ERA in three starts against San Diego this season, one of them seven innings of one-run ball at Petco Park on Aug 12.

I don't want to oversell it. The Padres went 51-30 at home, won four of the six regular-season meetings and swept the three at Petco Park in August, 3-2, 11-2 and 4-3. Recent form doesn't separate the clubs, because both went 8-2 over their last 10 regular-season games. May gave up seven home runs in 36.2 innings as a Brewer, and a warm night won't help him. The market has moved toward San Diego since Sunday as well, from -125 to -135.

Brewers +115 was available as of this morning, with books ranging from +110 to +120, and it implies 46.5%. I make this closer to an even game than that. It is a modest edge and the smaller of the two bets. Both games in Milwaukee were decided by one run, and I expect another close one.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.